Weekly News Roundup: Dispatches from the Silk Road Economic Belt

PUFFING ACROSS THE ‘ONE BELT, ONE ROAD’ RAIL ROUTE TO NOWHERE
Compared to sea or air, the Europe-China freight service just makes no economic or environmental sense, either coming or going (Scmp)

Security firms to cash in protecting China’s ‘New Silk Road’

Global security companies and their smaller Chinese rivals are jostling for business along Beijing’s modern-day “Silk Road”, the grandiose plan for land and sea routes connecting the world’s second largest economy with the rest of Asia and beyond. Security firms expect to tap the rush, offering to protect thousands of Chinese workers - and the pipelines, roads, railways and power plants they build - as they fan out across the world under the “Belt and Road Initiative”. (Scmp)

Trade with Belt and Road economies surges in Q1
China's trade with economies along the Belt and Road Initiative posted double-digital growth year-on-year in the first quarter of the year, the Ministry of Commerce said on Thursday. Sun Jiwen, the ministry's spokesman, said trade in goods between China and the Belt and Road economies grew 26.2 percent in the first three months from the same period of last year.China's exports to these countries and regions rose by 15.8 percent from a year earlier, and imports grew by 42.9 percent, Sun told a news conference. During the period, China's non-financial outbound direct investment in 43 economies in the Belt and Road regions reached $2.95 billion, accounting for 14.4 percent of the country's total, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce. Correspondingly, those economies set up 781 new companies in China, up 40 percent year-on-year. (People's Daily)

The Reality of the Sino-Russian Oil Alliance
Russia’s oil ties with China are deepening but markets, not politics, drive the evolving relationship. (Diplomat)

China-led ‘Belt and Road’ initiative links Kazakhstan with sea
"Our railway goes all the way to China's Lianyungang, where exclusive docks have been built," explained the director of the Nazarbayev University, adding that with most of the China-Europe freight trains crossing Kazakhstan, Chinese commodities could reach Hamburg and Istanbul in a short time. Kazakh public thought the country has lost its seaports when Soviet Union was dissolved, recalled Benedikt Sobotka, CEO of Eurasian Resources Group, adding that everybody back then was predicting a downturn for the country."But indeed, we don't need a sea at the door since China offers it to Kazakhstan," he stressed. China and Kazakhstan have given more weight to energy and resources in their capacity cooperation, with the investment into 51 projects totaling at $27.075 billion.(People's Daiy)

China-Pakistan, Economic Corridor

Initially hailed as a key part of China’s ‘One Belt One Road’ vision, the US$56 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has yet to translate into the ‘game changer’ envisioned by its sponsors. F.M. Shakil writes that the imported labour from China, tax exemptions for Chinese firms and security costs have combined to bring debt of over US$2.5 billion and Pakistani analysts are now asking how Islamabad will see any benefit. (Asia Times)

Fact Box: Assessing the Key Elements of the Belt and Road Initiative

The Chinese government’s “One Belt, One Road” summit on May 14 and 15 is touted as the highest-level meeting since President Xi Jinping announced the ambitious plan in 2013 to revive the ancient Silk Road trade routes on land and sea.State leaders and government heads from 28 countries will participate in the summit, while more than 1,000 officials, scholars, entrepreneurs and representatives from international organizations will attend the meeting, according to China’s Foreign Ministry. But what exactly is the Belt and Road initiative? Is it just about using infrastructure to strengthen ties, or does it form the basis of a visionary blueprint for global economic development? By the end of 2016, China has helped more than 20 countries build 56 industrial parks. More than 1,100 Chinese companies have helped establish plants and branch companies involved in the auto, machinery, electronics, textiles and clothing industries among others. They have invested $18.5 billion and created 180,000 jobs for local people, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce. In the first quarter of this year, China has signed nearly 100 project contracts in 61 countries along the Belt and Road routes, generating $14.4 billion and accounting for nearly half of all revenue Chinese companies achieved in overseas projects, the Ministry of Commerce said. The trade volumes with Belt and Road countries such as Russia, Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia have jumped by about a third in the first quarter year-on-year, far faster than those with the U.S., the EU and Japan, which increased by 11% to 17% (Caixin)

World Bank Group, China-led AIIB agree to deepen cooperation
The World Bank Group and the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank said on Sunday they agreed to deepen their cooperation with a framework for knowledge sharing, staff exchanges, analytical work, development financing and country-level coordination.The memorandum of understanding signed at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund spring meetings in Washington comes a year after the two multilateral lenders established mechanisms for cost-sharing and co-financing of investment projects. (Reuters)

Will China-led development banks get the coveted boost to shape a new financial world order?
The two development banks established under Beijing’s leadership, widely seen as China’s tools to help shape a new financial world order, are seeking ratings from international rating agencies to pave the way for future borrowing and the issuance of bonds. The Shanghai-based New Development Bank, commonly known as the BRICS Bank, and the Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), are seeking credit ratings from Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch Ratings, a vital step for them to borrow money in global capital markets and a key factor in deciding their financing costs. (Scmp)

China bans religious names for Muslim babies in Xinjiang
Many couples fret over choosing the perfect name for their newborn, but for Muslims in western China that decision has now become even more fraught: pick the wrong name and your child will be denied education and government benefits.Officials in the western region of Xinjiang, home to roughly half of China’s 23 million Muslims, have released a list of banned baby names amid an ongoing crackdown on religion, according to a report by US-funded Radio Free Asia. (Guardian)

Imagining Re-Engineered Muslims in Northwest China
While perusing the news from Northwest China in mid-April 2017, I came across a story about a Uyghur official who refused to smoke cigarettes in front of other devout Uyghurs. The Communist Party leader was publicly shamed and demoted for his failure to remain resolute in his “commitment to secularization.” Smoking, the state declared, was a personal choice that must be protected.By this logic, an individual’s right to smoke is thus a fundamental form of freedom: freedom to consume the secular. Smoking, like secularism, is a manifestation of the norms of Chinese citizenship. Any attempt at limiting it, in favor of respecting religious practices, is symptomatic of a social malady. The story, published by the Associated Press on April 11, 2017, reminded me of my own experiences of smoking with Uyghur friends. (Art of Life in Central Asia)

China party urges Uighur youth to 'love motherland' to avoid 'terrorist' label

Young members of China's Uighur Muslim minority should "love the motherland" and learn Mandarin to help fight a perception they are "terrorists", Uighur members of the ruling Communist Party said in state media on Thursday. (Reuters)

Think the RCEP is about free trade? Think again
Beijing-led pact is aimed at saving China's own economy via the Belt and Road.

While these negotiations are ostensibly aimed at setting regional trade rules, Beijing considers the RCEP to be a key piece of its One Belt, One Road strategy. China's Commerce Ministry has often linked the two initiatives explicitly: One Belt, One Road is meant to develop industrial and business infrastructure to promote trade and investment with China, while the RCEP is intended to take advantage of that new infrastructure by establishing a free trade framework that suits Beijing. If successful, the pact will open up neighboring markets to a flood of Chinese exports. Chinese companies won $126 billion worth of contracts related to One Belt, One Road last year. That is up 36% from the $92.6 billion in 2015, when contracts related to the initiative posted 7.4% growth from the previous year. Many of these exporters are state-owned raw materials producers that have been struggling with overcapacity and slow reforms.(Nikkei)

Reconnecting Asia has added over 250 infrastructure projects to its database since October 2016, and it has finally reached the 1800+ mark. (Reconnecting Asia)

China ratifies SCO border defence agreement

China's top legislature on 27 April ratified an agreement on border defence cooperation among member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The agreement was approved at the closing meeting of the bimonthly session of the National People's Congress (NPC) Standing Committee. (Xinhua)

CENTRAL ASIA

Russia’s Friendships And Its Discontents

In the divided and shifting diplomatic climate of recent years, Russia has needed to maintain its friendships in Central Asia as never before. But Moscow has had to strain its regional friendships to an onerous extent for the sake of larger global games it is playing. While none of its Central Asian partners is about to abandon Russia, not least because they cannot afford to do so just yet, more durable and satisfying partnerships require non-zero sum, more liberal relationships. (Eurasia.net)


Tajikistan: State Media Forced to Always Call President By Unwieldy Title

State media in Tajikistan are under strict instructions to start always referring to President Emomali Rahmon by his full title: The Founder of Peace and National Unity — Leader of the Nation.
A worker for a state media told RFE/RL’s Tajik service, Radio Ozodi, that the new rule has been in force as of last week. (Eurasia.net)

Kyrgyzstan: Thin-Skinned President Sets Dogs on Media, Again

Life in Kyrgyzstan for independent media and critics of President Almazbek Atambayev took a fresh turn for the worse on April 28 as an embattled website revealed it is facing a fifth lawsuit from the government.Yet again, the irreverent news website Zanoza.kg faces accusations of offending the dignity and honor of the president — both qualities cynics might suggest are in increasingly short supply. This time, the outlet and its co-founders are being sued to the tune of 9 million soms (around $135,000) for reproducing outspoken remarks by former MP and long-time Atambayev detractor Cholpon Dzhakupova. (Eurasia.net)

Russian beyond Russia: The politics of language in Eurasia
Language is harmfully intertwined with politics these days in Eurasia. The swirling debates are raising questions about the boundaries of Russianness.

(Eurasia.net)

Remittances sent by labor migrants from Russia to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan falling
EurasiaNet.org reports that remittances paid by migrant laborers from Russia to Central Asia in 2016 fell compared to 2015. As stated before, the Russian Central Bank did note last week that money transfers by individuals to Uzbekistan had hit $2.74 billion in 2016, but this actually represented a drop not a rise, since the figure for 2015 was $3 billion, according to EurasiaNet.org. Second place among cash transfers made from Russia to former Soviet republics is taken by Tajikistan. The figure for remittances in 2016 was $1.9 billion — a global figure smaller than Uzbekistan, but one that accounts for a far greater proportion of the nation’s economy as a whole. This is a fall from the previous year, when it was $2.2 billion. Kyrgyzstan with $1.7 billion is in the third place. Now, this is an improvement, from the $1.5 billion recorded in 2015, EurasiaNet.org says. (Asia Plus)

La misteriosa ascesa della Hainan Airlines

Cosa ha permesso alla Hainan Airlines Group, una piccola compagnia aerea regionale, di diventare il terzo principale azionista della Deutsche Bank, offrire 1 miliardo di dollari per acquisire la compagnia singaporiana CWT e concludere un accordo da 775 milioni per una quota di maggioranza nell'unità di stoccaggio e logistica della società mineraria Glencore International? Se lo chiede la stampa cinese, che negli ultimi giorni ha rimestato nel torbido, mettendo in luce la disinvoltura con cui HNA ha continuato a investire all'estero nonostante i lacci e lacciuoli introdotti da Pechino per mettere un freno all'emorragia di capitali. Da gennaio a oggi, il gruppo ha annunciato otto nuovi accordi del valore di 4 miliardi di dollari in paesi che spaziano dalla Polonia alla Nuova Zelanda. Una "lunga marcia" che procede in senso opposto rispetto alla battuta d'arresto registrata da Wanda, la creatura dell'uomo più ricco di Cina Wang Jilin, impegnata in un'agguerrita campagna d'acquisti a Hollywood - all'inizio dell'anno, Wanda si è vista bloccare dal governo i fondi necessari ad ultimare l'acquisizione della Dick Clark Productions Inc.

E se invero anche HNA ha visto qualche freccia mancare il bersaglio, tuttavia, la sua rapida ascesa rimane oggetto di ghiotte speculazioni. Con base nella provincia di Hainan, il gruppo - che nasce come operatore aereo - ha ormai esteso il proprio business, diventando uno dei più grandi conglomerati a livello internazionale, con asset nel settore alberghiero, immobiliare, finanziario e turistico. Il suo patrimonio alla fine del 2016 ammontava a quota 146 miliardi di dollari, circa quattro volte il valore riportato nel 2010. Una fortuna accumulata a suon di prestiti, tanto che, secondo il Wall Street Journal, HNA e le sue sussidiarie rientrerebbero tra le 30 aziende cinesi più indebitate, con un passivo pari al 60% dei propri asset.

Come spiega il quotidiano finanziario, il segreto della società starebbe nell'aver emesso bond offshore, aggirando le barriere issate da Pechino per bloccare il flusso di liquidità in uscita dal paese.
Ma c'è chi non esclude che il gruppo abbia abilmente cavalcato l'onda del clientelismo alla cinese. Nata per volontà del governo locale di Hainan, la società è ormai formalmente libera del mantello statale. Ma si sa, oltre la Muraglia, la distinzione tra privato e pubblico è più che mai sottile, giacché le aziende di successo - seppur ufficialmente "private" - vantano quasi sempre "guanxi" (agganci) molto in alto; Alibaba e Wanda ne sono un esempio. Ci si chiede dunque se anche la HNA non debba la sua grandeur a qualche alto papavero di turno. Il tempismo non è del tutto casuale, dato che la compagnia aerea cinese è curiosamente spuntata nelle esplosive rivelazioni dell'imprenditore Guo Wengui. Ricercato da Pechino e dall'Interpol, all'apice della sua carriera Guo si è classificato 73esimo nella lista degli uomini più ricchi di Cina. Oggi è membro del resort di Mar-a-Lago di Donald Trump e vive negli Stati Uniti da quando nel 2015 un'inchiesta del quotidiano cinese Caixin lo ha accusato di aver oliato il proprio business cospirando con alcuni alti funzionari del Partito comunista. La sua storia è rimasta lontano dai riflettori fino a quando nel mese di febbraio Guo non ha deciso di rompere il silenzio per fare i nomi della corruzione che divora l'establishment cinese.

Alcuni giorni fa, parlando ai microfoni di Voice of America dal suo esilio americano, l'uomo ha accusato il vice ministro della Pubblica Sicurezza, Fu Zhenhua, di averlo ricattato per ottenere informazioni sensibili in cambio di protezione ai suoi dipendenti e alla propria famiglia. Secondo quanto dichiarato dallo stesso Guo, le informazioni riguarderebbero proprio i legami poco limpidi tra la HNA e il capo della Commissione Disciplinare anti-corruzione, il potentissimo Wang Qishan. Fu Zhenhua "mi ha chiesto di cercare informazioni su Wang Qishan e sul suo rapporto con la Hainan Airlines" - nella quale avrebbe una quota la nipote di Wang-, ha dichiarato il businessman, precisando che a esigere l'indagine sarebbe stato nientemeno che il presidente Xi Jinping.

Weekly News Roundup: Dispatches from the Silk Road Economic Belt

Multiple Routes Between China And Europe Is Why The New Silk Road Is A Real Game Changer

There are currently three operational rail corridors that physically connect China and Europe. The northern one goes mainly through Russia, and for the most part follows the route of the Trans-Siberian Express. The central route goes all the way across Kazakhstan before linking into the northern route in the west of Russia. While the southern route goes through Kazakhstan to Aktau and either crosses the Caspian Sea by ferry or goes around to Iran before going through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. Along each corridor the transport time is in the ballpark of 10.5 to 16 days. (Forbes)

WHAT A STRONGER ERDOGAN MEANS FOR CHINA

Beijing’s long-term investment in the Turkish leader may prove lucrative if the new executive president can keep a grip on his own nation’s tumultuous internal politics

(Scmp)

China's investment along Belt and Road booms

Chinese companies' investment in countries along the Belt and Road rose again in Q1. From January to March, Chinese enterprises invested 2.95 billion U.S. dollars in 43 countries along the Belt and Road, according to the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) on 18 April. The investment accounted for 14.4 percent of Chinese firms' total outbound investment in Q1, compared to 9 percent for the same period last year. (Xinhua)

Seven countries to deepen cooperation on China-Europe freight rail services 

Railway authorities of China, Belarus, Germany, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Poland and Russia, have signed an agreement to deepen cooperation on China-Europe freight rail services, according to China Railway Corporation.The agreement serves the Belt and Road Initiative, expands the market share of rail freight between Asia and Europe and drives economic development and trade cooperation for counties along the route.(Global Times)

Hotan Pays Over 1 Million Yuan in “Stability” Rewards

The South China Morning Post’s Nectar Gan cites state media to report that Xinjiang authorities have paid out over a million yuan ($160,000) to 16 police officers and two private citizens in Hotan for their contribution to “maintaining stability.” Hotan, in southern Xinjiang, has been the site of several recent fatal violent incidents. (China Digital Times)

New claims of Chinese oppression against Uyghur people
China has been forcing international Uyghur students to return home by threatening their families with imprisonment. Uighur students who are studying abroad and as well local sources in the region have been forced to return under a new regulation. This has been taking place especially of those student in Turkey, Egypt and Japan, and have been treated as if they are convicted criminals. According to reports, China has begun to apply this practice to the Uyghurs, who are either immigrants or refugees abroad, as well as businessmen. (Worldbullettin)

Brexit spurs UK fantasies of restored glory ... whips, chains & boots more likelyThe British media dubbed it the Silk Road Train. And as it pulled away from a cold, cloudy and decidedly un-Central Asian platform in London last week, a small crowd waved UK and Chinese flags, clapped and, with reserve and moderation, cheered the train as it set out on the 12,000-kilometer return journey east. A Chinese dragon even did a dance. (Asia Times)

China Railway Express to EuropeThe launch of a rail freight service from the Chinese city Chongqing via the Alashankou border crossing in Xinjiang through Central Asia to Europe in March 2011 ushered in a new era for freight on rail as an alternative to shipping by sea or air. China-Europe rail cargo transport has subsequently gained rapid traction, fueled by the rollout of the Belt and Road Initiative.There are currently 40 service lines running through Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Northeast border crossings to destinations in Central Asia, Russia, Central and Eastern Europe and Western Europe. With the launch of the Yiwu-London line in January 2017, the trans-Eurasian network now extends to 15 cities in 10 European countries. A total of 1,702 trains made the trans-continental voyage between China and Europe in 2016, up 109 percent from a year before. (China.org)

Rahmah's story: 'I am a Chinese hijabi'
Rahmah is a young Chinese Muslim woman who only began wearing a hijab in her 20s. She describes how she sticks to her religious beliefs, and how she is trying to help Chinese Muslim women reclaim their identity. (BBC)

Xinjiang plans energy trade center in Karamay, eyesexpanded business in Central Asia

Northwestern China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region has announced a plan to setup an oil and gas trade center in Karamay, as the region sets its sights on doing morebusiness in Central Asia.
Approved by Xinjiang's development and reform commission, the plan is in accordancewith the ambition of the nation's top energy authority to research and set up aninternational energy trade center targeting Central Asia. The Karamay center is intendedto help promote basic infrastructure in Xinjiang, which is a core region in the Belt andRoad Initiative, Xinhua News Agency reported. (People's Daily)

Horses trot through centuries-old breeding farm in northwest China
The video shows a spectacular scene of horses galloping around the Shandan Army Horse Breeding Farm in northwest China's Gansu province on April 8, 2017. The Shandan Army Horse Breeding Farm was first established in 121 B.C. by Huo Qubing, a famous cavalry general in ancient Han Dynasty. At 2,195 square kilometres, the farm is both the largest in Asia and the world's oldest horse breeding farm. (China Plus)

China opens new freight train service to Moscow

A new freight train service started on Friday linking the east China port city of Xiamen with Moscow, making it the newest China-Europe freight train route. At 9:30 a.m., the train with 40 containers left the station from Xiamen Free Trade Zone carrying goods worth 363,000 U.S. dollars including granite, lighting supplies, artificial flowers and shoes for Moscow. The train route connects the east and northeast Chinese cities of Nanchang, Nanjing, Jinan and Jinzhou, and crosses the border via Manzhouli Port in north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. (Xinhua)

Bhutan’s Relations With China and India
The 14th Dalai Lama’s April 4-13 visit to Tawang in the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, over which China lays claim, drew thousands of followers. Among these were some 3,000 Bhutanese, who trekked across mountains to see the Tibetan spiritual leader. Bhutan shares a disputed border with Tibet and has close ties with Tibetan Buddhism, complicating its relationship with China. The Sino-Bhutanese border dispute involves 764 square kilometers (sq km) of territory. Beijing claims 495 sq km of territory in the Jakurlung and Pasamlung Valleys in north-central Bhutan and another 269 sq km in western Bhutan, comprising the Doklam Plateau. Doklam Plateau abuts Chumbi Valley, which like the Tawang salient that adjoins Bhutan’s eastern border has enormous strategic significance for China, Bhutan as well as India. India’s defense of its northeast would be undermined should Bhutan cede control over it to China. (Jamestown Foundation)


CENTRAL ASIA

Tajikistan Opens A New Chapter: No Books Allowed In Or Out Without Approval
You might want to think twice before grabbing a book to read on your flight to Tajikistan -- especially if it is written in an unfamiliar script. The country's Culture Ministry recently announced that no books are allowed in or out of the country without written permission, part of a stated effort to prevent valuable manuscripts from being smuggled out of the country. (Rferl)

'Kazakh people wear black only for mourning,' Nazarbayev says suggesting to ban beards and all-black clothes 
President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev during the meeting with the Spiritual Board of Muslims of Kazakhstan on April 19 spoke for the banning of all-black clothing for women and beards for men.He said (men's) short pants and beard "never were our traditions" and suggested to consider banning it at the legislative level, the Akorda reported. Nazarbayev made an emphasis on "religious ignorance of the younger generation," which is the reason why the young men now grow beards and shorten their pants. (Akipress)

Uzbekistan: Internet Cafes, Gaming Halls Closed En Masse

Security services in Uzbekistan have for the last few days been ordering the closure of internet and computer gaming cafes across the country in what appears to be an attempt to clamp down on suspected extremist religious activity. (Eurasianet)

Lo Hebei sfida Shenzhen e Shanghai

Duemila chilometri quadrati per una popolazione di 2 milioni e mezzo di persone. Una Pechino sussidiaria 100 chilometri a 160 chilometri a sud della capitale è in costruzione. E’ questo il destino della Nuova Area Economica di Xiongan che, secondo i piani del governo cinese, assumerà principalmente le funzioni “secondarie” di Pechino, ospitando alcune istituzioni amministrative e pubbliche, sedi di società, istituzioni finanziarie, istituti di istruzione superiore e centri scientifici e tecnologici. L’obiettivo è quello di decongestionare la troppo inquinata e affollata Pechino, andando a stimolare il potenziale inespresso della provincia che la circonda: lo Hebei. Un’urgenza a cui l’establishment cinese sta lavorando da un paio d’anni e che ha già dato alcuni frutti: secondo quanto riportato recentemente dai media di stato la popolazione dei quartieri centrali della megalopoli è scesa di 353mila unità nel 2016 a quota “soli” 23 milioni. Dal 2014 l’amministrazione Xi Jinping-Li Keqiang sta lavorando alla realizzazione di un ambizioso progetto di integrazione urbana tra Pechino, la città portuale di Tianjin e lo Hebei (noto con il nome di Jing-Jin-Ji). All’epoca il distretto di Tongzhou fu indicato come principale destinazione per la delocalizzazione di tutte quelle strutture accusate di appesantire troppo la capitale. Xiongan dovrebbe costituire la seconda “colonna” del progetto.

Per usare le parole del presidente Xi Jinping, Xiongan dovrà diventare "una smart city di prima classe a livello internazionale, verde, moderna, elegante" e funzionale in termini di servizi pubblici. Alla conclusione dei lavori, l'area - che comprende le contee di Anxin, Rongcheng e Xiongxian - dovrebbe raggiungere un'estensione pari a tre volte New York e sarà raggiungibile da Pechino, Tianjin e Shijiazhuang (capoluogo dello Hebei) in 30 minuti grazie ad un graduale ampliamento delle infrastrutture stradali e ferroviarie.

Il progetto, annunciato ufficialmente il 1 aprile, nasce da un desiderio personale di Xi, recatosi lo scorso anno sul posto in perlustrazione. Secondo il leader cinese, si tratta di una "decisione storica e strategica importante" e "fondamentale per il millennio in arrivo". Addirittura, nelle parole di Xi, Xiongan diventa “l'eredità lasciata ai posteri da questa generazione del Partito comunista cinese”.

Non a caso l’obiettivo conclamato è quello di competere con le zone di libero scambio di Shenzhen e Pudong (Shanghai). Così come le prime due furono lanciate dagli ex leader Deng Xiaoping e Jiang Zemin, l'area commerciale di Xiongan dovrebbe diventare il fiore all’occhiello dell’era Xi Jinping, in procinto di inanellare un secondo mandato quinquennale. Un ultimo lascito simbolico, da parte di quello che viene considerato il dirigente cinese più potente dai tempi di Deng. Ad oggi, in Cina ci sono 19 “New Area”, di cui ben 13 istituita a partire dal 2014, ovvero più o meno in concomitanza con l’annuncio di un nuovo piano di urbanizzazione sostenibile mirato a trascinare il 70% della popolazione cinese nelle città entro il 2030. L’aggettivo “sostenibile” dovrebbe rimarcare un’inversione a U rispetto all’urbanizzazione ipertrofica degli ultimi 30 anni, costata al popolo cinese un alto tasso di inquinamento, una sperequazione dei servizi e la costante minaccia di una bolla immobiliare.

A questo punto, la domanda sorge spontanea: perché proprio Xiongan? Innanzitutto, per via del relativo sottosviluppo, che strizza l‘occhio a ciò che la Cina sa fare meglio: le infrastrutture. Attualmente, infatti, le rendite delle amministrazioni locali dello Hebei vengono principalmente dalla vendita dei terreni agli sviluppatori immobiliari, che non hanno alcun interesse a costruire infrastrutture. Considerato che gli investimenti contano per il 50% del Pil cinese, si capisce come – nell’ottica del governo centrale - il progetto sia scaltramente declinato a rilanciare la crescita economica, scesa ai minimi da 26 anni. Per Morgan Stanley, nei prossimi dieci anni la New Area richiederà tra i 12 e i 14 milioni di tonnellate di acciaio l’anno, e attrarrà 348 miliardi di dollari, aggiungendo ogni anno uno 0,4% al Pil. Numeri che la rendono potenzialmente l’opera più imponente della storia cinese moderna. Come hanno sottolineato alcuni analisti, mentre Shenzhen e Shanghai sono state puntellate da capitali stranieri, la lontananza dal mare vincola Xiongan al supporto delle risorse nazionali.

I media ufficiali non hanno lesinato gli sforzi nel tessere le lodi della zona prescelta, una delle poche del paese in cui il 100% del riscaldamento domestico proviene da energia geotermica. La presenza del lago Banyangdian, il più grande del nord della Cina, dovrebbe inoltre porre le premesse per uno sviluppo "green", come auspicato da Xi. Incuriositi dalla notizia, recentemente circa 18mila turisti sono confluiti sulle sponde del lago per festeggiare il Qingming Jie (il nostro Ognissanti), oltre il doppio rispetto al 2016.

Ma, dietro gli annunci altisonanti e le cifre da capogiro, si nascondono diverse insidie. Nonostante il progetto sia ancora poco più che un’idea, a poche ore dall’annuncio dei lavori i prezzi delle abitazioni nelle tre contee interessante sono lievitati da 8.000 a 30.000 yuan al metro quadro di pari passo con l’arrivo di speculatori a caccia d’affari, costringendo le autorità a imporre severi limiti alle vendite. Non solo. Mentre Pechino punta a incrementare la popolazione locale dagli attuali 100mila abitanti a 2 milioni, il sospetto è che molte delle piccole attività commerciali locali verranno sfrattate per far posto ai nuovi arrivati. Per di più, che Xiongan abbia realmente le tanto sbandierate credenziali “sostenibili” è tutto da vedere. Lo Hebei ospita 6 delle 10 città più inquinate della Cina e le acque dello stesso Banyangdian risultano gravemente contaminate, tanto da mettere a rischio le falde acquifere circostanti. Su tutto incombe minaccioso il nodo gordiano del debito pubblico, che alla fine del 2016 ammontava al 277% del Pil. Alla luce delle molteplici cattedrali nel deserto – croce e delizia dei governi locali - spuntate negli ultimi anni, non sono in pochi ad aver avanzato qualche perplessità sulla reale funzionalità di Xiongan.

Ma le insidie non scoraggiano i fautori dell’opera, che fanno affidamento su uno sponsor di tutto rispetto: Xi Jinping in persona. Infatti, di tutti i 18 nuovi distretti, Xiongan è l’unico a vantare l’approvazione del Comitato centrale del Pcc e del Consiglio di Stato. Vuol dire che Pechino ha il pieno potere di spedire sul posto università, uffici governativi e aziende statali – sono già una trentina quelle ad aver confermato il proprio supporto alla realizzazione del progetto.

(Scritto per Gli Italiani)

Weekly News Roundup: Dispatches from the Silk Road Economic Belt

China to build observation station to protect Pamir Plateau

China will build an observation station in Taxkorgan County, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, northwest China, to improve the ecology of Pamir Plateau. Pamir Plateau was once a busy passage used by traders traveling along the ancient Silk Road. The station will be used by researchers concerned with water resources, biodiversity, grassland productivity, climate change, and disaster warning and forecasting, said Lei Jiaqiang, director of the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography under the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Xinhua

First UK rail freight service to China to depart
The first rail freight service from the UK to China will depart on a 7,500-mile journey from Essex on Monday. Thirty containers will carry British goods including whisky, soft drinks, vitamins and pharmaceuticals. A DB Cargo locomotive will leave the DP World London Gateway rail terminal in Stanford-le-Hope for the city of Yiwu in Zhejiang province, eastern China. After going through the Channel Tunnel the train will pass through seven other countries before arriving on 27 April.
BBC

Fellow Uighurs should beware of 'two-faced' people in separatism fight, official says

A senior Uighur Communist Party official in China's far-western Xinjiang has urged Uighur cadres to reveal "two-faced people" and "clean them out", the latest in a string of senior figures to single out their own ethnic group in the restive region. It was at least the fourth such warning from Uighur officials in the past two weeks. Another top Kashgar official warned last week that Uighur party cadres were not pulling their weight in the region's fight against extremism.

Baku-Beijing Relations and China’s Growing Interest in the South Caucasus

This past January, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev attended a session on “The Silk Road Effect” at the 2017 World Economic Forum in Davos, alongside Georgian Prime Minister Giorgi Kvirikashvili (President.az, January 19). Presumably, the intention of both leaders was to promote the importance of the new China-led “Silk Road Economic Belt” project and its role in the future development of the economy and infrastructure in the South Caucasus. As a source of and as a transit corridor for strategic global resources such as oil and natural gas, as well as the intersection of important transportation routes between the East and West as well as the North and South, the South Caucasus holds great geostrategic importance. In 2016, the China-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) approved its biggest loan so far for the construction of a gas pipeline connecting Azerbaijan to Turkey and Southern Europe. The AIIB lent $600 million to the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline Project (TANAP) which, when completed, will transport natural gas from fields in Azerbaijan across Turkey and then onward to markets in Southeastern Europe (Jamestown Foundation)

The Security Implications of China's Overseas Investment Boom

The international implications of Chinese investment abroad, and security moves designed to protest those assets (Diplomat)

China's Silk Road push in Pakistan edges out U.S. Investments

China is overtaking the U.S. as the largest direct foreign investor to Pakistan, with the South Asian nation increasingly favouring its neighbour’s “One Belt, One Road” trade route that’s funnelling in billions of dollars and revamping decrepit infrastructure. With relations frayed between the U.S. and Pakistan, China has been strengthening its ties to the nation of about 200 million people after it pledged two years ago to loan and finance about $55 billion in a so-called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. (Bloomberg)

CHINA IN THE MIDDLE: PAKISTAN TRADE CORRIDOR UNDER SPOTLIGHT AFTER INDIAN ‘SPY’ GETS DEATH SENTENCE

China is again caught up in a South Asian showdown as India cries foul over a Pakistani court decision to sentence naval officer Kulbhushan Jadhav to death for alleged espionage and sabotage activities in Baluchistan – a key province in Beijing’s economic corridor project.India has labelled the military court’s decision “premeditated murder”, and promised to do everything in its power to save Jadhav. (Scmp)

New natural gas pipeline from southern Kazakhstan to China will further diversify country's gas import sources
A new strategically important natural gas pipeline running from southern Kazakhstan toChina began operating on Friday, China National Petroleum Corp said in a statement.The company said the pipeline, which has annual installed transportation capacity of 6 billion cubic meters of gas, will help ensure diversification of the nation's gas supplies.The 1,454 kilometer pipeline is being jointly operated by CNPC Trans-Asia Pipeline Co Ltdand Kazakhstan's state KazTransGaz－and will provide China with 5 billion cu m ofnatural gas each year－according to Asia's biggest oil and gas producer CNPC. (Peple's Daily)

China-Kazakhstan border trade gives him pot of gold

Ni Jianhua is never worried about slow sales in the free trade zone on the China-Kazakhstan border.
After seeing the fifth client of the day out, the baby care product trader hurried to a warehouse in the Horgos International Border Cooperation Center to inspect a batch of baby carriages, which just arrived at the northwest China's port from south China's Guangdong Province. "They will be sold to Kazakhstan very soon," he said, "Products always sell out here." Ni, 44, has been doing business in Horgos, the largest land port on the border with Kazakhstan in northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, since 2006. Like his fellow merchants from east China's Zhejiang Province who are dubbed as the "Chinese Jews" for their success in doing business, Ni is diligent and works hard all day long. (Xinhua)

Authorities Urge Kyrgyz Herdsmen to Spy on Uyghurs in China’s Xinjiang

Local authorities are urging Kyrgyz herdsmen in the mountains of a far-western prefecture in northwestern China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region to report suspicious people and events to the government in a new move to move to monitor Muslim Uyghurs in the restive area. (Rfa)

For those visitors who come to the city for annual ceremonious ritual, the biggest charm of Zhengzhou is actually its fantastic transformation and development in economy and urbanization

As mainland China transitions into a second period of economic opening up and reform, Zhengzhou is becoming the new engine for China’s rise and crucial point of the country’s "One Belt and One Road" national strategy, referring to the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. With increasing interest from other mainland provinces and neighbouring Asian nations, such as South Korea and Japan, the future for the Zhengzhou-Europe International Shuttle Train is bright, and only set to get brighter as the nation's development of the Silk Road Economic Belt grows.The 10,214km Zhengzhou-Europe International Shuttle Train is a key overland route that will be an integral part of the "Belt and Road" initiatives as the city now is a major hub for the country's "Look West" policy. (Scmp)


Nepal, China begin first-ever joint military exercises

China and Nepal began their first-ever joint military exercises on Sunday, a move likely to rattle India as Beijing boosts its influence in the region. The 10-day drill in Kathmandu, dubbed “Sagarmatha Friendship 2017” referring to the Nepali name for Mount Everest, will focus on counter-terrorism, according to Nepal’s army. (Scmp)

Tajikistan: Man Arrested for Slightly Disrespecting President
A man in northern Tajikistan has reportedly been arrested and potentially faces several years in jail for being slightly disrespectful to a poster of President Emomali Rahmon.Akhbor news website reported last week that Hasan Abdurazokov, an unemployed father of three in the Sughd region, offended Rahmon ahead of the recent Nowruz holidays.“In public view, he took a picture of Rahmon down from the wall, he threw it to the ground and said: ‘You have everything, you have a good life, and me, I have nothing with which to continue my life,’” an unnamed source familiar with the case was quoted as telling Akhbor. (Eurasianet)

Uzbekistan says told West that Stockholm attack suspect was Islamic State 

Uzbekistan's security services warned a western ally before last week's deadly truck attack in Stockholm that the suspected perpetrator was an Islamic State recruit, Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov said on Friday. Kamilov told reporters that Rakhmat Akilov had been recruited by the jihadist group after he left the Central Asian nation in 2014 and settled in Sweden.(Reuters)

Prospects And Challenges For Regional Economic Cooperation And Integration In Central Asia: A Kyrgyz Perspective 
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, all five Central Asian states have joined several regional organizations, jointly or separately, in order to guarantee further political and economic development for their countries. The forms, instruments and mechanisms of regional cooperation and integration differ from each other. CAREC (Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation), a project of the Asian Development Bank, offers an example of an organization whose activities extend not only to the five Central Asian states but also to Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, the People's Republic of China, Mongolia, and Pakistan. This “wider region” concept was used to enhance cooperation and improve connections between Asia and Europe. From a security perspective, cooperation in the wider region was also developed to improve the situation in Afghanistan.(Eurasia.net)


Kazakhstan announces plans to move from thr Cyrillic to Latin alphabet
Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev on Wednesday (April 12) set out a timeline for the ex-Soviet country to switch from Cyrillic letters to the Latin alphabet as part of a modernisation drive.
The 76-year-old leader has long called for ditching the Cyrillic alphabet - which Kazakhstan shares with neighbour and ally Russia - in favour of the more widely used Latin one. In an article published in the state-owned Egemen Kazakhstan newspaper Nazarbayev called for the government to begin "preparatory work" and "create a schedule" for the switch. (AFP)

Uzbekistan provides farmers with lemon trees and chickens to boost economy 

Uzbekistan's government plans to provide almost two million rural households with chickens and lemon trees so that they can feed themselves and sell their produce. (Reuters)

L'Armada Usa nel "mirino nucleare" di Pyongyang

In caso di aggressione americana, la Corea del Nord non resterà a guardare: risponderà con un attacco nucleare. E’ quanto ventilato dai media statali nordcoreani martedì, a pochi giorni dall’annuncio dell’invio di una flottiglia statunitense nel Pacifico occidentale, in prossimità della penisola coreana. “Il nostro potente esercito rivoluzionario sta osservando da vicino ogni movimento degli elementi nemici, mantenendo il nostro obiettivo nucleare focalizzato non solo sulle basi Usa in Corea del Sud e nel Pacifico, ma anche sulla terraferma”, ha scritto il quotidiano Rodong Sinmun. Secondo il ministero degli Esteri nordcoreano, il regime di Kim Jong-un si prepara ad adottare “le più dure controazioni contro i provocatori” in ottica difensiva.

Nel weekend, fonti Reuters avevano confermato la partenza da Singapore di un gruppo d’attacco a stelle e strisce, guidato dalla portaerei Carl Vinson e diretto alla volta della penisola coreana, anziché verso l’Australia, come precedentemente stabilito. Motivando il dispiegamento navale, il segretario alla Difesa statunitense Jim Mattis ha parlato di semplice “prudenza”, evitando di collegare la manovra a una minaccia precisa. Più loquace il presidente Donald Trump, che al Fox Business Network ha magnificato le doti della “Armada”, composta da “sottomarini molto potenti. Molto più potenti della portaerei”. Due cacciatorpedinieri e un incrociatore completano l’organico.

Appena poche settimane fa Pyongyang si è esibita nell’ennesimo test missilistico e ulteriori gesti provocatori – come un sesto test nucleare o il lancio di un missile balistico intercontinentale – potrebbero trovare spazio il 15 aprile in concomitanza del 105esimo anniversario dalla nascita del “presidente eterno” Kim Il-sung, nonno del leader Kim Jong-un. Un evento che – stando a recenti rilevamenti satellitari – verrà presumibilmente festeggiato con una maestosa parata militare, in un meno provocatorio sfoggio di muscoli.

In passato analoghe festività sono state sfruttate come passerella per i gioielli bellici del regime di Kim, come gli zaini nucleari e nuovi modelli di missili, tra cui il KN-09, l’ICBM KN-08 e il KN-14. Mentre ulteriori ostentazioni autocelebrative potrebbero trovare un’adeguata collocazione il 25 aprile, giorno della fondazione dell’Esercito del popolo coreano. Per il momento il governo statunitense sminuisce i toni del Regno eremita. “Non penso che al momento vi siano prove che attestino la capacità della Corea del Nord (di colpire gli Usa)”, ha dichiarato il portavoce della Casa Bianca Sean Spicer, “minacciare di fare qualcosa che non si è in grado di compiere non può essere considerata veramente una minaccia”. Stando all’agenzia statale KCNA, nessun accenno al programma nucleare o alle intimidazioni americane ha trovato posto nel resoconto dell’Assemblea popolare suprema, la camera legislativa nordcoreana riunitasi martedì.

All’indomani dell’attacco americano alla base siriana di Al Shayrat – sferrato mentre il presidente cinese Xi Jinping era ospite di Trump a Mar-a-Lago – il regime del Nord aveva parlato di atto “imperdonabile”, definendo l’intervento statunitense un incentivo a rafforzare il proprio arsenale nucleare in ottica difensiva. Nello spiegare il tempismo della reazione americana contro Bashar al-Assad, lunedì il segretario di Stato Rex Tillerson ha accennato a un avvertimento indirizzato a tutti quei paesi che si ostinano a violare le “norme internazionali”, Corea del Nord compresa. Secondo Tillerson, l’iniziativa statunitense in Siria avrebbe incassato il placet di Xi in persona.

Proprio quest’oggi il fil rouge che lega l’escalation in Medio Oriente alla penisola nordcoreana è stato argomento di discussione tra Xi e The Donald. In una conversazione telefonica, il leader cinese ha auspicato una soluzione pacifica delle tensioni a nord del 38esimo parallelo e ha bollato come “inaccettabile” l’uso di armi chimiche in Siria, esortando il Consiglio di Sicurezza delle Nazioni Uniti a esprimersi con voce unica sull’argomento. Un appello che segue a stretto giro una nuova sfilza di tweet indirizzati dall’imprenditore al gigante asiatico, ritenuto troppo poco collaborativo. Facendo leva sulla possibilità di mercanteggiare con Pechino – mischiando questioni economiche e politiche – il nuovo inquilino della Casa Bianca ieri ha cinguettato di aver “spiegato al presidente cinese che un accordo commerciale con gli Stati Uniti sarà molto più favorevole se risolveranno il problema della Corea del Nord.” Ribadendo, tuttavia, che “se la Cina decide di aiutare, sarebbe fantastico. In caso contrario, risolveremo il problema senza di loro!” Ogni opzione – compresa quella militare – rimane sul tavolo.

A inizio settimana, Pechino e Seul hanno ventilato nuove e più severe sanzioni nel caso in cui Pyongyang esegua ulteriori test atomici o missilistici, mentre ultimamente navi cariche di carbone nordcoreano sono state respinte dalle dogane cinesi in una più stretta osservanza delle risoluzioni internazionali. Intanto, secondo Chosun.com, Pechino avrebbe parcheggiato 150mila soldati al confine sino-coreano per tamponare l’eventuale flusso di disertori e intervenire in caso di “situazioni imprevedibili”. Voci che, tuttavia, il ministero della Difesa cinese si è affrettato a smentire.ù

(Pubblicato su Il Fatto quotidiano)

Weekly News Roundup: Dispatches from the Silk Road Economic Belt

Afghanistan housing project underlines China´s growing role

Afghan authorities expect work on the first phase of a multimillion-dollar housing project financed by China to begin within months, as Beijing continues to raise its development profile in the region.
The project, originally announced in 2015 during a visit to Kabul by Chinese Vice President Li Yuanchao, is expected to see the construction of 10,000 housing units for Afghan civil servants after the project was cleared by both governments last week. The first phase will see 1,400 units built near the old Darulaman palace in the capital Kabul, with China agreeing to provide $73 million (500 million yuan) in finance. Two further phases are expected to follow, depending on the successful implementation of the first stage. “So far, the project is the largest Chinese-supported project in Afghanistan,” Hamid Jalil, a deputy minister at the Ministry of Urban Development told Reuters.(Geo Tv)

Fallout from fall of Chinese executive who sealed copper mine deal in Afghanistan
The disgrace last week of the businessman who won a deal in 2007 for China to develop a copper mine in Afghanistan, which was the largest foreign investment deal in the war-torn country at the time, has highlighted the lack of progress on the project over a decade. (Scmp)

China-Europe new freight train linking Xi'an with Budapest starts operation on Saturday 
A new freight train linking China's northwestern city of Xi'an withBudapest has started operation.
The 41-carriage train loaded with garments, toys, household items and electronic productsmainly made in eastern China's Yiwu City, departed from Xi'an, capital of ShaanxiProvince, on Saturday afternoon. It will leave China through the Alataw Pass in Xinjiang, and pass Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland before reaching its destination in Hungary. The trip spans about 9,300 km and takes 17 days, about 30 days shorter than the previoussea and rail route. Starting Nov. 28, 2013, Xi'an has launched 317 cargo trains to central Asia and Europe, exporting 474,000 tonnes of goods as of April 1 this year. (People's daily)

Why China’s bid to sell high-speed rail technology overseas is losing steam
China’s ambitious strategy to export its high-speed railway technology is facing various obstacles, making its aim of boosting connectivity with nations across continents difficult to achieve, industry insiders said. Construction of high-speed railways abroad is part of Beijing’s massive “One Belt, One Road” initiative to increase trade and infrastructure links with countries from Asia to Africa, but most of the current rail projects have stalled. (Scmp)

China pledges to further deepen defence cooperation with Pakistan

China said 31 March that it is willing to push forward all-weather friendship with Pakistan. This was stated by spokesperson for Chinese Ministry of National Defence, in Beijing 31 March. He said China is willing to work with Pakistan to continuously deepen the exchanges and cooperation between militaries of the two countries. He said the two sides have planned to hold joint army counter-terrorism training in the first half of this year and both sides are still having consultation on related matters. (TheNation)

One Belt, One Road faces scrutiny by EU

During talks with his Serbian counterpart Tomislav Nikolic in Beijing on 30 March, Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed “hope” that the Belgrade-Budapest railway project would be advanced. Xi never mentioned the European Union’s pending investigation into the planned high-speed train between the capitals of Serbia and Hungary, but it is hard not to detect a tinge of irritation in his words over the EU’s decision to suspend the China-backed initiative temporarily. (Asia Times)

China official admonishes fellow Uighur cadres for 'anti-terror' failings

A senior Uighur official in China's restive western region of Xinjiang has admonished other Communist Party "cadres" from the mostly Muslim Uighur minority for failing to pull their weight in the fight against terrorism, state media said. (Reuters)

Xinjiang county to recruit more police officers, intensify patrol efforts

The government of Akto county, Northwest China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, has announced that it will recruit an additional 600 police officers from outside Xinjiang. "In order to strengthen stability maintenance work in the county, intensify our patrol efforts and enhance the people's security, the Akto government has approved the recruitment of 600 police officers, including 500 males and 100 females, for the patrol team in the county's public security bureau," the local government announced on its website on 31 March. (GlobalTimes)

Censure of officials sheds light on sweeping surveillance measures in China’s restive XinjiangThe Communist Party in China’s restive Xinjiang region has punished 97 cadres in its rural south for failing to do a proper job monitoring local residents, providing a rare glimpse into the extent of surveillance imposed in the ethnic-Uygur heartland.The cadres in Hotan prefecture in southern Xinjiang, including seven village police officers, were punished for a wide range of derelictions of duty, such as failing to mark down the exact number of Muslims taking part in congregational prayers, or not knowing who were absent from the weekly flag-raising ceremonies – a compulsory gathering aimed to boost patriotism, during which the national anthem is sung under the Chinese flag. (scmp)

New book introduces Uyghur culture

Before writing Notes of Residency in Southern Xinjiang (南疆住村笔记), Zhao Jiangtao had never imagined he would live in a rural village among Uyghur residents. Graduating from Tsinghua University in 2011, Zhao worked as a government employee in Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang. In 2014, in the wake of a slew of terror attacks both in and outside Xinjiang, the regional government decided to send 200,000 officials to rural areas to help reinforce local governments, win over local residents' hearts and uproot extremist ideology.  Zhao was among the first group of government employees sent to southern Xinjiang. During the year he spent in a village in Wushi county, Aksu prefecture, Zhao recorded his interactions with local Uyghurs. These writings later became the basis for Notes. His first book, it was released in January.
(Global Times)

Latvia may link Northern Europe with China via railway

Andrew Johansson, In November 2016, a trial container train from Yiwu City in Zhejiang province in China arrived in Latvia after completing an 11,000 km journey over 12 days through North-eastern China and Siberia. It was a major logistical achievement and signalled China’s commitment to extend its Belt and Road Initiative westward, possibly to Latvia, too. The timing of this China-EU shipment fits within China’s larger goals of increasing trade with Europe through the $4 trillion infrastructure investment program they launched in 2013, known as the Belt and Road Initiative. (TheBalticTimes)

Chinese vice premier to visit CEE countries, attend meetings in Russia, Kazakhstan

Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli will visit Estonia, Slovenia, Albania, and attend meetings in Russia and Kazakhstan from April 11 to 19, a foreign ministry spokesperson said 5 April. China's relations with the 16 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries, among which are Estonia, Slovenia, and Albania, have grown in recent years thanks to the rapid development of the "16+1" cooperation mechanism. (Xinhua)

China’s New Silk Road mined with distrust

At a dinner in Shanghai several years ago, I asked a wealthy Chinese entrepreneur why his government continued to support North Korea. How was it in China’s interest to coddle an economic basket case that tests nuclear weapons in the middle of the Chinese New Year? The answer was blunt. “Look at a map,” he replied. “We are ringed by American allies. North Korea is the best we can do.”
Chinese people are proud of their country’s economic renaissance but baffled by its dearth of friends. How does the West retain so much soft power in China’s backyard? (Reuters)


Beijing’s strict capital controls are delaying belt and road project approvals

Mainland firms now need up to three times longer to gain approval for their investments in the government’s trade plan (scmp)


China to turn Chernobyl into solar power plant

Two Chinese companies have announced plans to build a one gigawatt solar photovoltaic plant in the exclusion zone surrounding the Chernobyl nuclear reactor, reviving the site after the worst nuclear power plant disaster in history, RT reports. (Tengrinews)

China and Russia: Friends with strategic benefits

Is the relationship between China and Russia just an axis of convenience – a limited partnership with no real empathy between the two parties, spiced by deep-seated and well-hidden mutual mistrust? Or is it an emerging alliance of revisionist authoritarian powers which marries Beijing’s growing economic power with Russia's brazenness to challenge the international liberal order? And more importantly, what are the challenges posed by growing rapport between China and Russia to Western interests and leadership? To address these questions, one needs to unwrap the Sino-Russian relationship from many layers of myth, spin-doctoring, and old wisdom projected onto current developments. (The Interpreter)

Russian-Chinese Joint Ventures in Russia’s Far East, Arctic

Since 2001, Russian-Chinese relations have been largely grounded in security issues, both military and economic. The former is a shared perception of an increasingly aggressive United States and, in the case of Russia, concerns over the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) deployments on the periphery of both countries. In the economic sphere, the defining element is China’s rising interest in Russian energy exports. These twin issues will dominate Russian-Chinese relations for the foreseeable future and—given the geographical distances involved—focus increasingly on Russia’s Far East and the opening up of the Russian Arctic. Russia’s commitment to building up its Arctic infrastructure, as well as China’s interest in this pursuit, was illustrated by the arrival, on March 30, of Sovcomflot’s $300 million Kristof de Marzheri liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker at the Kara Sea port of Sabetta, on the Yamal Peninsula (Komsomolskaya Pravda, April 2; see EDM, March 29). (Jamestown Foundation)

India Moves Mountains to Build Military Road to China Border

AME CHUNG CHUNG, India—On the near-vertical slopes of the eastern Himalayas, workers are blasting and cutting treacherous rock faces to build a top-priority military asset: a 34-mile road to the country’s disputed border with China. India is accelerating work on strategic roads to be able to move troops and supplies to the border faster and deploy sophisticated weapons if armed conflict breaks out. China already has extensive infrastructure on its side. (Wsj)


First trainload of Russian wheat arrives in China

A freight train fully loaded with Russian wheat arrived at Manzhouli land portin north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Saturday.This is the first bulk shipment of Russian wheat to enter China via the land port after thetwo countries reached deals on quarantine inspection requirements for exporting Russianwheat, corn, rice and soybean to China in December 2015. (Ppl's Daily)




CENTRAL ASIA


Challenging the Central Asian Migrant Myth: Separation and Radicalization
It’s a seemingly obvious path from migrant worker to radical in the minds of many, characterized by separation and marginalization and thus clear vulnerability to radicalization. But as respected migration studies scholar Sergey Abashin, a professor of history at the European University in St. Petersburg, explained at a timely talk hosted by George Washington University’s Central Asia Program on Tuesday, research does not back up several common assumptions about Central Asian migrant workers in Russia, especially with regard to religiosity and radicalization. (The Diplomat)

Latest Majlis podcast: New book reveals Central Asia's connections to the outside world 

Central Asia often seems like a remote region. You don’t hear much about Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan playing roles in international affairs. There is an impression that the five countries are tucked away in the heart of the Eurasian landmass with only the most tenuous of ties to the world outside. A new book, Dictators Without Borders: Power And Money In Central Asia, argues that this is far from the case, that the elites of these countries are, in fact, very well connected to the outside and are also very knowledgeable about laws and regulations in the world beyond Central Asia. (Rfl)

Tajikistan steps up battle against Islamic clothing

Clothing factories in Tajikistan are churning out brightly coloured national dresses amid a surge in sales, and it's not just because of the arrival of spring. An increasing number of female officials, teachers and students have been wearing the Atlas and other traditional dresses following a recommendation by the Central Asian country's government. (Yahoo)

Kazakhstan Takes Over Russian Missile Test Site

Kazakhstan has shut down another Russian military testing site, as it steadily removes Moscow's Soviet-legacy military footprint. On April 5, President Nursultan Nazarbayev ratified an agreement to take over the Emba missile testing site, in the Aktobe region of western Kazakhstan, from Russia. (Eurasia.net)
SCO Expansion Should Not Threaten the West

Expanding the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) will strain its functions but could boost trade and relations between Central Asia and South Asia, writes Raffaello Pantucci. (The Conway Bullettin)

Is Investment in Infrastructure the Answer to Russia’s Economic Problems?

It will be nearly impossible for Russia to revive its economy through state investment in infrastructure alone. Conservative estimates suggest that Russia would have to invest 15 percent of its GDP in infrastructure annually for many years to have a significant effect on the economy. (Carnegie)

Deadly Bomb Explosion in St. Petersburg Metro Exposes Vulnerability of Russia’s Cities

As of April 6, no known terrorist organization has claimed responsibility, but the authorities blame radical Islamists and the Islamic State (IS), in particular. Though, in most cases, the IS does not hesitate to claim responsibility for deadly acts of terrorism. The Russian authorities have named Akbarzhon Jalilov as their prime suspect. He allegedly carried the bomb onto the train in a backpack and was allegedly the suicide attacker. Jalilov (22), an ethnic Uzbek, was born in Osh—a city in the Fergana Valley region in the former Soviet republic of Kyrgyzstan, which has a sizable ethnic-Uzbek population. (Jamestown Foundation)

Pyongyang Finds an Ally in Moscow

On Feb. 3, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un sent out Lunar New Year greeting cards to international allies. For the third year in row Russia was listed at the top of the list of friendliest countries, relegating China to second place.

Gone are the days when Beijing was by far the Democratic People’s Republic’s most reliable partner. And, as China severed ties, there is considerable evidence that China and North Korea are no longer as close as “lips and teeth.” The Chinese President Xi Jinping has yet to meet with Kim Jong-un since he assumed power five years ago.

And although China accounts for 90 percent of North Korea’s trade (the bilateral exchanges have grown by tenfold in 15 years), it is beginning to appear that even Pyongyang’s main guarantor is almost fed up with the northern regime. Since Feb. 19 Beijing has suspended all imports of coal from North Korea until the end of the year, as part of its efforts to implement United Nations sanctions to rein in the country’s nuclear program.

Previously, China made exceptions for deliveries intended for “the people’s wellbeing” and not connected to the nuclear or missile programs. Despite the tough resolution, the loophole allowed China’s coal imports from North Korea to surge to 2 million tonnes in December, exceeding the UN Security Council’s monthly limit by at least one million tonnes and nearly US$115 million.

Now, China’s new restrictions have the potential to cripple North Korea’s already moribund economy. Coal has accounted for 34-40 percent of North Korean exports in the past several years, and almost all of it was shipped to China, according to South Korean government estimates.

Even though a painful divorce is unlikely, China has done nothing to hide its annoyance over the murder of Kim Jong-un’s stepbrother in Malaysia. Also US pressure continues to grow. As North Korea’s expert Yang Xiyu said to Bloomberg, for Beijing and Pyongyang, “economic sanctions are not as important as political sanctions. The lack of leadership meetings and high-level dialogues are how China exerts political pressure.”

And although there are several reports arguing that China is continuing to import U.N.-sanctioned minerals from North Korea, undoubtedly bilateral relations are no longer business as usual.

It is in this context that, after years of relative disengagement, Moscow is emerging as a redeeming patron of the northern regime. Even though Russia can never replace China as a source of economic assistance or trade, it can mitigate somewhat Pyongyang’s sufferings. As with China, the friendly ties between Moscow and Pyongyang date back to the Korean War. At that time, the Soviet Union was North Korea’s main trading partner and sponsor.

However, in the past few years, Russia’s influence over the security situation in the Korean peninsula has remained relatively limited. Moscow has participated in the now-suspended Six-Party Talks – along with China, South Korea, Japan and the US – but hasn’t provided military equipment since 1989, when it scaled down relations with Pyongyang in favor of reconciliation with South Korea.

To date, the Russian government has officially supported sanctions trying to curb North Korea’s fast-expanding nuclear and missile programs. But judging by the recent developments, the Russian leadership has made a political decision to expand economic cooperation with North Korea and stimulate Russia’s business interests with the DPRK.

In September 2012 Moscow agreed to write off 90 percent of North Korea’s US$11 billion historic debt to Russia as a sign of closer engagement with North Korea’s new leader. The US$1 billion North Korea has to repay will be used to finance Russian investment in humanitarian and energy projects in North Korea.

“This agreement removed legal blocks hindering the financing of trade between the two countries,” according to the website 38 North Georgy Toloraya, the Director of Korean Programs at the Institute of Economy at the Russian Academy of Science. Two years later, the Russian government has set a goal of growing the volume of its trade with North Korea tenfold to US$1 billion by 2020 – the year before its share in the foreign trade of North Korea accounted for a mere 1 percent.

The most obvious result was that Russian products, including food and medicine, have started rapidly replacing Chinese goods at North Korea’s local unofficial markets since late 2014, as they are generally seen to be of better quality at cheaper prices, according to sources inside the country.

Still, infrastructure and energy are the sectors attracting the most investment. On Jan. 31, Russia’s state news agency TASS reported that Russia Railways representatives visited North Korea to discuss an expansion of the Rajin-Hasan railway, which links Russia to the Korean peninsula. More recently, the Japanese newspaper Nihon Keizai disclosed that Russia and North Korea are deepening bilateral relations with a “labor immigration agreement” aimed to boost economic development in the Russian Far East with a low-cost North Korean work force.

It’s estimated about 40,000 North Koreans now work in labor-intensive industries in the country to earn foreign currency for the Kim Jong Un regime – numbers expected to rise. Meanwhile, Siberian oil companies have sometimes sold fuel to North Korea via a supply route linking Vladivostok to Rajin, providing the North Korean regime with vital hard currency, as the DPRK has processed Siberian oil in chemical plants and resold it to Chinese consumers.

But Moscow’s interest in North Korea is not limited to expanding its economic influence. From a political perspective, it seems that recently Russian commitment in the Hermit Kingdom has alike surpassed China’s. In February 2014, during the Winter Olympics in Sochi, a delegation headed by Kim Yong-nam, the chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly of North Korea, traveled to represent North Korea, while many leaders decided to snub the event to deliberately shame the Putin regime.

What’s more, though ingnored by the Chinese establishment, Kim Jong-un was invited to attend the Victory Day celebration in Red Square in May 2015, which honored the 70th anniversary of the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany. Security concerns have induced him to decline the invitation, but future development might be around the corner.

According to Sputnik – many US experts think that Kim could decide to turn to the Russian president to arrange a meeting with Donald Trump, a diplomatic effort which, until not long ago, would have certainly fallen on the shoulders of Beijing. During his electoral campaign, the new occupant of the White House announced he would be open to talks with Kim, but over the last few months further provocations by the young leader have prompted Washington to toughen its stance.

Almost certainly North Korea will be high on the agenda when Trump and the Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida this week, though chances of achieving concrete results are low.

Taking a closer look, the Russian diplomatic pressure is characterized by a certain farsightedness. As Samuel Ramani explains in The Diplomat, what Moscow really wants is to expand its role as a stakeholder in the preservation of long-term peace in the Korean peninsula. With an eye on the upcoming elections in Seoul, Russia is betting on the defeat of the right-wing Liberty Korea Party (formerly known as Saenuri) to improve relations with South Korea. The rise of left-leaning South Korean politicians and a more conciliatory line could increase Russian influence over the security situation on the Korean peninsula, as Moscow would be able to uniquely position itself as a strategic partner of both Pyongyang and Seoul.

Putin may succeed in controlling the Kim’s regime by linking a North Korean pledge of non-aggression on the Korean peninsula to the maintenance of Russia’s stiff border control policies – according to a treaty between Moscow and Pyongyang on the repatriation of criminals, Kremlin policymakers have mandated the deportation of all North Koreans who illegally enter Russian territory.

Bearing all this in mind, one may well wonder how Moscow’s economic and political rapprochement is viewed in Beijing. After years of ups and downs, now the two Eurasian giants are on the same page on many issues, from the South China Sea to Washington’s deployment of the THAAD missile defense system in South Korea. On the one hand, Russian engagement may clear the second largest economy of a heavy responsibility, as avoiding an abrupt collapse of the Northern regime is still the Chinese priority. But on the other hand, it may also hinder Beijing’s effort to bring Pyongyang back to the table.

“I doubt the Chinese are worried about Pyongyang’s ties to Russia” said Daniel Sneider, Associate Director for Research Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University, “if anything they probably welcome the Russians taking on some of the burden of propping up the regime. The only change that could seriously weaken North Korea’s dependence on China will be the advent of a progressive government in South Korea which will reopen significant trade and investment ties with the North, potentially at least.”

(Pubblicato su Asia Sentinel)

Dispute commerciali alla vigilia del primo incontro tra Xi e Trump

"Sarà un incontro difficile". A distanza da poche ore dalla conferma cinese dell'imminente meeting tra Donald Trump e il presidente della Repubblica popolare Xi Jinping - previsto per il 6 e 7 aprile a Mar-a-Lago, in Florida - il nuovo inquilino della Casa Bianca è ricorso all'amato Twitter per rivelare alcune anticipazioni. Un deficit commerciale in aumento e la perdita di posti di lavoro stanno costringendo le aziende americane "a guardare ad altre alternative", ha cinguettato il biondo imprenditore riprendendo due punti cruciali sostenuti in campagna elettorale con l'obiettivo di ammassare voti: la Cina inonda il mercato statunitense con merce a basso costo (grazie al deprezzamento della propria valuta) e sottrae lavoro agli americani mettendo a disposizione manodopera a prezzi stracciati.

Le accuse - che non tengono conto di diverse variabili (per citarne una, parte del Made in China viene prodotto oltre la Muraglia attraverso l'assemblaggio di componentistica proveniente in realtà da altri paesi, Usa compresi) - rievocano le minacce con cui Trump ha scandito i mesi precedenti alla vittoria. Si era parlato dell'imposizione di una tariffa del 45% sulle importazioni dalla Repubblica popolare, che secondo gli esperti porterebbe ad un crollo dell'export cinese verso gli Stati Uniti dell'87%. Una promessa che per il momento, tuttavia, non rientra tra le molte mantenute a partire dall'Inaguration Day: progressivo smantellamento della Trans-Pacific Partnership e degli accordi di Parigi in primis. Le avvisaglie delle ultime ore non sono ugualmente buone.

Venerdì l'Office of the United States Trade Representative - diretto da Robert Lighthizer e controllato dalla Casa Bianca - ha rilasciato la lista annuale in cui vengono enumerate le barriere commerciali attuate da 63 paesi. Nella fattispecie cinese, l'USTR cita la cronica sovracapacità industriale nei settori dell'alluminio e dell'acciaio (che riversano il proprio surplus sui mercati esteri facendo crollare i prezzi), il trasferimento di tecnologia estera alle società locali, cui si aggiunge il divieto sulle importazioni di manzo americano e sulla fornitura di servizi di pagamento online. Sul banco degli imputati siede il progetto "Made in China 2025", visto dagli esperti internazionale come un tentativo di nazionalizzare dieci industrie chiave (dalla robotica alla farmaceutica biologica) e limitare drasticamente il margine di manovra delle aziende straniere nel paese asiatico.

Nella giornata di venerdì Trump firmerà due ordini esecutivi: il primo per la realizzazione di un massiccio report per individuare "ogni forma di abuso commerciale e ogni pratica non reciproca alla base del deficit commerciale". Il secondo si concentrerà sul potenziamento della raccolta di dazi antidumping contro i governi stranieri colpevoli di sovvenzionare i propri prodotti in modo da rivenderli sotto costo. Sebbene, come si è affrettato a specificare il Segretario al Commercio Wilbur Ross, la Cina non sia il destinatario ufficiale della controffensiva trumpiana, le contingenze inducono ad altre conclusioni.

Appena pochi giorni fa, il U.S. Commerce Department ha avviato un'indagine per stabilire se la Cina debba essere trattata come un'economia di mercato o meno. Quella dell'attribuzione del mes (status di economia di mercato) alla Cina è una questione che da mesi pesa sulle relazioni tra Pechino, Stati Uniti e Unione europea. Il gigante asiatico reclama lo status in virtù di quanto stabilito nel 2001 al momento del suo ingresso della World Trade Organization. L'essere considerata una non-market economy costa alla Repubblica popolare l'imposizione di tariffe più gravose. Seconda l'ultima revisione risalente al 2006, la Cina non soddisfaceva ancora nessuno dei sei criteri necessari all'ottenimento del mes.

Mentre i recenti sviluppi gettano tinte fosche sulla prima trasferta statunitense di Xi Jinping, la Cina continua mantenere una linea insolitamente composta, privilegiando un approccio quasi di "studio" nei confronti della nuova imprevedibile amministrazione a stelle e strisce. Rispondendo alle minacce delle ultime ore, il viceministro degli Esteri Zheng Zeguang ha dichiarato in conferenza stampa che la Cina non persegue volontariamente i disequilibri commerciali e il modo migliore per risolverli è quello di aprire ulteriormente gli Stati Uniti agli investimenti cinesi, così da creare posti di lavoro sul suolo statunitense.

(Pubblicato su Gli Italiani)