Weekly News Roundup: Dispatches from the Silk Road Economic Belt

Central Asia’s Silk Road Rivalries

Russia’s and China’s separate visions for Central Asia could transform the region’s political and economic landscape as well as relations between the two Eurasian giants. To the smaller, embryonic Central Asian nation states, the new geopolitical realities could offer both economic prosperity as well as worsening instability and conflict. (Crisis Group)

Beijing To The World: Please Stop Saying OBOR

To remedy a rather confusing situation where nomenclature and reality did not run together, the Chinese government decided to change the name of its epic initiative to wrap up the Eurasian supercontinent and Africa with an array of trade corridors like the laces running around the contour of a baseball. (Forbes)


WITH SHARIF GONE, WHAT HAPPENS TO CHINA’S INVESTMENTS IN PAKISTAN NOW?
China has been assured by Pakistan’s powerful military and politicians that its multibillion-dollar Belt and Road investments would not be disrupted by the landmark verdict on Friday that felled Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, even though some of its investments could come under the widening corruption probe currently playing havoc with Pakistani politics. (Scmp)

For Pakistanis, China 'friendship' road runs one way

The China-Pakistan Friendship Highway runs over 1,300 kilometres (800 miles) from the far western Chinese city of Kashgar through the world's highest mountain pass and across the border.For China, the two-lane thoroughfare symbolises a blossoming partnership, nourished with tens of billions of dollars of infrastructure investment.But for many Pakistani businessmen living and working on the Chinese side of the border, the road is a one way street. (Yahoo)
Border dispute with India could hurt Chinese trade

Beijing’s strong-arm approach could make an enemy of New Delhi, whose strategic position is key to the success of the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’
(Scmp)

Is Beijing’s hardline stance on border rows blowing its defence diplomacy?

“There is a fundamental disconnect between China’s assertive behaviour in the South China Sea and the Maritime Silk Road [part of the broader Belt and Road strategy that Xi has been championing] which China has not entirely resolved,” Pantucci said.“On one hand, China is building trust and relations, but on the other it is exacerbating tensions.”At the end of the day, how Beijing actually uses its power when dealing with disputes – such as the ongoing standoff with India in Bhutan – is what countries around the region are closely watching. (Scmp)

China Bans Uyghur Language in Xinjiang Schools

Authorities in northwest China’s Xinjiang region have issued a directive completely banning the use of the Uyghur language at all education levels up to and including secondary school, according to official sources, and those found in violation of the order will face “severe punishment.”
(rfa)

The 100-year History of Northeast China’s Frontier Railway

More than a century ago, the declining Russian Empire began an ambitious undertaking that would become one of the great wonders of human engineering: the Trans-Siberian Railway. Spanning northern Eurasia and traversing the frozen Siberian wastelands, its tracks stretched all the way from Moscow to the shores of the Pacific Ocean in the Russian Far East. (Sixth Tone)

Trump’s Iran contradiction

Russian military technology is reaching Tehran more freely than ever and with China viewing Iran as the regional hub in its Belt and Road Initiative, Tehran is doing a good enough job to resist Donald Trump’s attempts to isolate it. M.K. Bhadrakumar writes that there are also big contradictions in the Trump administration’s approach to Iran, because it is legislating sanctions while also certifying that Iran’s compliance with the important 15 July 2015 nuclear deal is satisfactory. (Asia Times)

Update: $1.5b China Loan for Iranian Rail Project

ProjectChina signed a contract with Iran to finance the electrification of a 926-km railroad from Tehran to the eastern city of Mashhad in Khorasan Razavi Province with a $1.5 billion loan.As per the agreement signed between the two sides in Tehran on Tuesday, the guarantee for the loan, which is to be granted by Exim Bank of China, will be provided by Iran’s Bank of Industry and Mine, IRIB News reported.A subsidiary of China General Technology Group, CMC is an international engineering contractor in transportation infrastructure, industrial facilities and power plants. In 2014, the company constructed the Ankara-Istanbul high-speed railroad, together with China Railway Construction Corporation Limited and Turkish companies. (Financial Tribune)

Mongolia Gets On Board with China’s Belt and Road Initiative

China’s Belt and Road is putting pressure on Mongolia to resolve a strategic dilemma. On the one hand, Ulanbaatar is eager to reduce its political and economic dependence on China through its Third Neighbor foreign policy; on the other, Mongolia faces competition from Kazakhstan to reap the potential rewards of becoming a key node in the Belt and Road. (Eurasianet)

Latest China-Europe freight train leaves for Munich, Germany on July 28

China launched its newest Europe-bound freight train line at a ceremony in Linfen, North China’s Shanxi Province on July 28, 2017, people.com.cn reported. Departing for the first time, the China Railway Express line loaded with automobile parts and machine accessories is scheduled to arrive in Munich, Germany in around 10 days. The train will cover 10,000 kilometers along the Silk Road Economic Belt, eventually delivering cargo to 10 companies in Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, France and Italy. (Global Times)



CENTRAL ASIA

New Pipeline Will End Iran's Need for Turkmen Gas

The launch of a gas pipeline stretching from the city of Damghan in Semnan Province to Neka in Mazandaran Province next week will end the country’s need for gas imports from Turkmenistan, managing director of the National Iranian Gas Company said.“By launching the Damghan-Neka pipeline, there will be no need for importing Turkmen gas. But we will continue to swap Turkmen gas as part of a national policy to expand regional relations,” Hamidreza Araqi was also quoted as saying by Shana, the official news agency of Oil Ministry, on Tuesday. The Central Asian state unilaterally halted natural gas supplies to Iran in December in violation of the terms of its contract with Iran. The country increased gas prices ninefold to $360 per 1,000 cubic meters from $40.(Financial Times)

Uzbekistan Confirms Karimova Probes in PR-Boosting Exercise
Uzbekistan did more than confirm what all watchers of the region already suspected in announcing news of prosecutions against the late president’s eldest daughter — it also made a fresh bid toward achieving a sliver of international respectability.The General Prosecutor’s Office announced on July 28 that a slew of criminal probes were initiated against Gulnara Karimova as long ago as October 2013, when her father was still alive. Tashkent regional court sentenced her, in August 2015, to five years of “limited freedom,” the prosecutor’s statement said. From all that is known of Karimova’s fate, limited freedom appears to indicate house arrest. (Eurasianet)

Central Asia’s Catechism of Cliché: From the Great Game to Silk Road

When people ponder the history of Central Asia, they tend to have two ideas in mind – that the region has long been the subject of great power rivalry, known since the 19th century as the ‘Great Game,’ and that prior to that, for over 2,000 years, the region was at the heart of a major trade route connecting China and Europe, known as the ‘Silk Road.’Both of these ideas, as they are generally understood today, are inaccurate. They have become clichés that are sometimes used in absurd ways. (Eurasianet)

Uzbekistan to raise $137M to finance Navoiazot’s projects

Uzbekistan plans to get additional loans from foreign banks in the total amount of $137.36 million under a government guarantee to finance three investment projects at Navoiazot OJSC, the country’s biggest chemical plant producing mineral fertilizers.It is planned to get a loan of 2.5 billion Japanese yen (equal to $21.74 million) from a consortium of Japanese banks led by the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, and a loan of $115.62 million from Germany’s Commerzbank AG and Switzerland’s Credit Suisse. (Trend News Agency)

‘Our Future Will Be Violent Extremism’
Kazakhstan — Central Asia’s most stable state — is waking up to the fact that Islamic extremism has planted its roots and is here to stay. (Foreign Policy)

Is There A Terror Threat In Turkmenistan?
Is there a terror threat in Turkmenistan? That's the big question as the Turkmen government takes actions that appear to support the idea.The authorities seem more obsessed with security than normal lately, and that's saying a lot considering how tight the government's grip over society has been since independence in late 1991.This heightened anxiety comes as Turkmenistan prepares to host an international event later this year but suddenly faces increased extremist activity just across, and possibly even within its borders. (Rferl)

Weekly News Roundup: Dispatches from the Silk Road Economic Belt

Special Security Division established to secure CPEC 
A Special Security Division has been established to secure the $55 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The division, which comprises nine army battalions and six civil wings encompassing 13,700 personnel, has been tasked with securing CPEC projects and protecting Chinese nationals working on the projects. The Ministry of Interior has also issued a notification in this regard according to Radio Pakistan. The ministry will subsequently issue deployment orders after requisition from provinces, an official of the planning division was quoted as having remarked.
(Tribune)

China to auction more Xinjiang oil and gas exploration sites to private investors: media: China will auction about 30 oil and gas blocks, also called exploration sites, in the north western region of Xinjiang this year to investors outside the top state energy firms, state media reported. The move comes as Beijing steps up efforts to boost private participation in the sector. A lack of private investment in oil and gas exploration has been a big stumbling block in Beijing’s attempts to reform the sector and it has picked the hydrocarbon-rich autonomous region of Xinjiang to try to break the grip of the big companies. SCMP

China warned of risk to banks from One Belt, One Road initiative
Beijing’s plan to invest almost $1tn in infrastructure in some of the world’s poorest countries is raising concerns of risks for the Chinese banks backing the projects. Turmoil in countries such as Venezuela, where China has lent $65bn during the past decade, has led to a recalibration of the level of risk facing the One Belt, One Road project in emerging markets, experts say. (FT)

What's Are China's Stakes in Syria?

The presence and activity of Uighurs in the Turkestan Islamic Party in Syria, draws Beijing’s attention to the Middle East. (The Diplomat)

CIA papers reveal China's nuclear free pass to Pakistan

Recently declassified CIA files testify to the depth of the Pakistan-China military relationship built over decades and also highlights how Beijing was willing to risk its own nuclear cooperation with US to boost the nuclear ambitions of 'all weather friend' Pakistan. In the files, the US notes that China did not ask Pakistan to open its nuclear installations to IAEA inspections, after inking a nuclear agreement with the latter. (The Economic Times)

Banker Fears Flow of Chinese Goods on Silk Road in Pakistan

As Pakistan opens itself to China’s Silk Road plan and billions of dollars worth of investment projects, the head of the bank owned by the Abu Dhabi Group is warning of an influx of cheap goods that may leave millions in the South Asian nation jobless. While the Chinese investments and loans worth more than $46 billion will bring new industrial activity and a need for services, Pakistan may be unprepared for a rush of wares from its larger neighbor that it can’t compete against, said Atif Bajwa, chief executive officer at Bank Alfalah Ltd., the country’s sixth largest lender. (Bloomberg)

New China-Mongolia Mining Deal: Economic Windfall or Environmental Threat?

Mongolia recently reached a new deal to sell coal to China, helping it boost its faltering economy and start repaying billions of dollars it owes Wall Street lenders.Under the landmark agreement completed late last year, Mongolia’s state-owned mining company will sell coal to China at roughly double the previously agreed-upon rate. The deal follows a devastating four-year period when Mongolian miners exported coal to China at deeply-discounted prices, sometimes for as little as 11% of the global benchmark price, undercutting Mongolia’s economic growth. Mongolia agreed to those punitive terms to get the loan from China and has been struggling to repay it.

(WSJ)

CENTRAL ASIA

Three months after an embarrassing and fruitless search for Kyrgyzstan’s vanished constitution, its president has signed and ratified a new one, delegating new powers to his prime minister.
The constitution was reported missing late last year when officials began debating changes they wanted to make to it, which would see the prime ministerial role assume responsibilities that the president has, such as appointing and dismissing ministers. The proposed changes were meant to be put to a national referendum, but critics of President Almazbek Atambayev said the vote could be a mere ruse to allow him to retain power. (Newsweek)

Weekly News Roundup: Dispatches from the Silk Road Economic Belt

Party high-flier uses his Tibet model in bid to tame Xinjiang
Just three months after former Tibet party boss Chen Quanguo took up his new post in Xinjiang, the far western frontier is implementing new security and surveillance measures – policies its Tibetan neighbours to the south are only too familiar with. Since October, residents in many parts of the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, both the predominantly Muslim Uygurs and the Han, have been told to hand over their passports to local police for safekeeping, according to police notices circulating online and residents’ complaints on social media. (South China Morning Post)

Moscow to Host Crucial Meeting With China, Pakistan to Discuss Afghanistan

Russia, Pakistan and China will hold the next round of three-way counterterrorism talks in Moscow December 27, primarily focusing on turmoil-hit Afghanistan. Russian Ambassador to Islamabad Alexey Dedov disclosed the details in an interview to state-run Pakistani radio. This will be the third meeting of the “trilateral working group on Afghanistan,” he said, following meetings in Beijing and Islamabad. (VOA)

Xinjiang sees robust textile, garment exports in first 10 months, Kazakhstan & Kyrgyzstan as two major markets 

Textile and garment exports in northwest China's Xinjiang saw robust growth in the first 10 months this year, boosted by the Belt and Road Initiative, local customs authorities have said. Exports of textiles and garments from Xinjiang reached 43 billion yuan (6.2 billion U.S. dollars) during the Jan.-Oct. period, up 49 percent from the same period last year, according to the customs of Urumqi, capital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.(Xinhua)

Spotlight: Chinese businesses actively participate in development of Russia's Far East
Russia's development strategy for its Far East in recent years has yielded opportunities for local cooperation with China and for investment from Chinese enterprises. The deepened China-Russia political ties and mutually complementary markets, among other factors, have also contributed to a broad prospect for win-win cooperation between the border regions of the two neighbors. This is believed to be the consideration that has led to a recent visit here by a Chinese business delegation, along with massive investment and cooperation projects. According to COFCO Vice President Chi Jingtao, the company is ready to open a branch in the Far Eastern port city of Vladivostok.
Its investment will be focused on a farm produce and food processing plant, which is expected to supply products for the Russian, Chinese and international markets. Developing high-end tourism and commercial real estate at the cultural and tourist attractions of Russia's Far East is the other major part of the company's investment plan.(Xinhua)

China Focus: Chongqing's China-Europe trains on fast track
Every day, trains full of laptops, electronics and auto parts depart the remote village of Tuanjiecun for Europe. For five years, trains have delivered laptops for Hewlett-Packard, car window regulators for Brose and semi-conductors for AT&S, from Chongqing Municipality, southwest China, to Europe. Since the trains started in March 2011, there has been a business boom in the mountain city. According to Chongqing Logistics City, Chongqing imported more than 2,000 cars on the international rail network in the past two years. Six years ago the city was struggling to attract businesses, which mostly centred on China's coastal areas where convenient shipping and air transport converge. (People)

Kyrgyz concerns about donkey exports to China
Kyrgyzstan has signed a contract to export 4,000 donkeys to China, reigniting a row about the ethics and transparency of the trade. Police in Osh region in the south of the Central Asia state confirm that lorries laden with the live donkeys are already heading for China, adding that all licences and medical paperwork are in order, the Turmush web site reports. It established that the donkeys come from farmers in Chong-Alai village, and the price paid per head by a Chinese-Kyrgyz company is on above the local market value of 3,000-4,000 soms ($43-57; £34-46). (BBC)

China 'blocks' border crossing to Mongolia as relations freeze over following Dalai Lama visit

After receiving a visit from exiled Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama, Mongolia says that China has closed down a key border crossing between the two countries. Al Jazeera reports that hundreds of mining trucks have been stuck at the Gants Mod crossing in southeastern Mongolia in sub-zero temperatures after tariffs on commodity shipments between China and Mongolia were raised last month, coinciding with a six-day visit to Ulaanbaatar made by the Dalai Lama. (Shanghaiist)

New rail and road cargo service opens between Tibet, Nepal, largely cutting transport time and boosting trade
Dozens of trucks carrying 19 million yuan (2.8 million U.S. dollars) worth of goods left the border port of Gyirong in Tibet after customs clearance on Friday, continuing the journey to their destination in Nepal.The new rail and road cargo service, linking Guangdong, Tibet and Nepal, aims to boost trade with the South Asian neighbor as China pushes forward its Belt and Road Initiative. A train carrying eight carriages and 14 boxcars full of products, including shoes, clothes, hats, furniture, appliances, electronics and building materials, covered the 5,200-km distance between Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong Province, and Xigaze in Tibet. The trucks are responsible for the remaining 870 km of the journey, carrying goods to Gyirong and then to the final stop in Kathmandu, Nepal's capital.(Xinhua)

China fund to buy 10% stake in Russia’s largest petrochemicals group: China’s Silk Road Fund has agreed to buy a 10 per cent stake in Russia’s largest petrochemicals group, in the second major Chinese state investment in the company whose shareholders include people close to president Vladimir Putin. Sibur, which buys and processes gas produced as a byproduct of Russia’s energy industry, announced on the 14 of December that its shareholders had signed a deal for China’s Silk Road Fund – a state investment vehicle created as part of Beijing’s One Belt One Road strategy – to take a 10 per cent stake, without providing further details, writes Jack Farchy in Moscow. (FT)

Russia supports China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project: Envoy

According to an interview on Radio Pakistan, this was stated by Russian Ambassador to Pakistan Alexey Y Dedov. Dedov pointed out that CPEC is a component of China's Silk Road and his country was also working on a similar Eurasian Economic Union. He added that China and Russia are holding discussions to merge the two projects. (Dawn)

China completes $350 million power plant in Tajikistan's capital Dushanbe

A Chinese firm has completed a power plant worth $350 million in Tajikistan's capital Dushanbe, the ex-Soviet country said Thursday, indicating Beijing's growing economic dominance in the cash-strapped state. It is one of several Chinese companies active in Tajikistan, where China's Exim Bank holds around half of all foreign debt. (EnergyWorld)

Tajikistan: China Swoops in For Fertilizer Plant

The game of pass the parcel with one of Tajikistan’s rare industrial success stories has now led to a promising fertilizer plant being taken over by Chinese investors. The lower house of parliament on December 14 ratified a deal between Tajikistan and China for Henan Zhong-Ya holding group to assume control of OAO Azot in a deal that will require the company to invest $360 million over the coming three years. (Eurasianet)

Kabul security gates in storage as Afghan officials trade accusations A set of giant security gates financed by China and intended to protect Kabul from large bombs and drug smuggling lie stored in a warehouse more than five months after they arrived, while Afghan authorities bicker over who should install them. Intended for the four main entry points into Kabul, they have been delayed by infighting between departments and by a land dispute, underlining the difficulty of getting things done in a country where conflict and corruption have slowed progress.
The hangar-style gates, each weighing around 30 tonnes, are to reinforce the so-called "Ring of Steel" that surrounds Kabul, a city of five million people already protected by blast walls, armed checkpoints and eye-in-the-sky surveillance cameras. (Reuters)

Will warmer ties between US and Russia leave China out in the cold?

If Tillerson’s appointment did mark the start of a new era in relations between the Kremlin and the White House, Moscow would have less incentive to compromise with Beijing, especially in central Asia, where both Russia and China were showing greater interest, observers said.But analysts also said less confrontation between the world’s two biggest military powers would “bring a more stable global security environment”, which would not be bad news for China. But “if now Russia’s international standing improves, it will have less incentive to continue compromising with China. And China will have less leverage in dealing with Russia.”(SCMP)

Central Asia

Tajik Prez visits India, defence ties to get boost
India would oblige any request for upgrading of Ayni airbase near Dushanbe as Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon comes starts his two day visit to India. It is President Rahmon’s 6th visit to India and he will be entering the country through Kochi, which is not an official part of his visit. The Ayni airbase near Tajikistan’s capital city was refurbished by India in 2007 and is seen as New Delhi’s strategy to find a toehold in the Central Asia. (India Express)

Shrinking exports spell trouble for Turkmenistan

WHEN the price of natural gas was high, Turkmenistan raked in $10bn a year from exports—a tidy sum for a country of 5m people. Most of it went on the grandiose schemes of Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, the authoritarian president and self-proclaimed “Protector”, or was distributed to his cronies. But the economy nonetheless grew at an average annual rate of 11% between 2010 and 2014, according to official statistics. The price of natural gas has since halved, however, with dire consequences. Gas accounted for a quarter of GDP and half of all government revenue. The low price means the economy has slowed markedly (see chart), and the budget has swung from a surplus of nearly 10% of GDP in 2012 to a projected deficit of 3% this year. Dwindling foreign-exchange reserves equate to just nine months of imports. (Economist)

Weekly News Roundup: Dispatches from the Silk Road Economic Belt

China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ plan pushing through global headwinds

President Xi Jinping, who is consolidating his power at home, is planning to host a big “One Belt, One Road” summit in China next year, sources close to the central government told the South China Morning Post, adding that the event would match, if not exceed, the scale of this year’s G20 summit in Hangzhou, which attracted 30 state leaders. (SCMP)


Central Asia’s tortured Chinese love affair
On 30 August 2016, a suicide bomber attacked the Chinese embassy in Bishkek. It was the first time since Central Asian independence 25 years ago that Chinese state symbols have been directly targeted. This attack raises a few questions. Is there a growing resentment of China among Central Asian populations? Is this resentment a threat to Chinese interests in Central Asia? And could this change China’s approach in Central Asia or make its presence in the region questionable? (East Asia Forum)

First cargo train from China leaves for Karachi

China and Pakistan have launched a direct rail and sea freight service, with the first cargo train departing from Yunnan, an inland province in southwest China, the official Xinhua news agency reported. The new rail, sea freight service will cut logistics cost, including that of transport, by 50 per cent compared to past services, the news agency reported. (Dawn)

Chinese investor paid $3.3M to buy Ukrainian state-owned bank (UBRD), says local authorities on Wed  China's Bohai Commodity Exchange Co., Ltd. (BOCE) purchased the Ukrainian Bank for Reconstruction and Development (UBRD), localauthorities said Wednesday. (People's Daily)

Turkmenistan launches railway to Afghanistan to boost exports

Turkmenistan opened a railway link to Afghanistan on Monday to boost exports of fuel as the gas-rich but cash-strapped nation seeks to ease its dependence on China and Russia - the volume of gas sales to China, the current main buyer, is limited by pipeline capacity. On the Afghan side, the link goes to the Aqina dry port in the Faryab province, but there are plans to extend it further. The Turkmen government said in a statement the railway would become part of longer link that would eventually connect landlocked Central Asia to China and Southeast Asia. (Reuters)

China dismisses report of military patrols in Afghanistan

China's Defence Ministry on Wednesday dismissed reports Chinese military vehicles were patrolling inside Afghanistan, after an Indian media outlet said Chinese security forces were making regular patrols there. India's WION news outlet this month published pictures on its website showing what it said were likely Chinese security forces patrolling in Afghanistan's far northeastern Little Pamir region, where the country shares a border with China. Chinese Defence Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun dismissed the report. (Reuters)


Police Confiscate Passports in Parts of Xinjiang, in Western China (New York Times)

To Kashgar and beyond in Xinjiang, China’s wild west
From the shouts of the livestock traders in Kashgar’s market to the Kyrgyz yurt we sleep in beneath the remote, majestic Muztagh Ata mountain range in Xinjiang, it’s China - but not as you know it.(SCMP)

CRRC on track to take over Czech firm

China Railway Rolling Stock Corp, the country's largest railway vehicle and equipment manufacturer, is in takeover talks with Czech Republic's Skoda Transportation AS, a move to further increase its market share in Europe's railway markets. CRRC Zhuzhou Electric Locomotive Co, one of CRRC's manufacturers mainly producing electric locomotives, is in charge of the talks to buy a 100 percent stake in Skoda Transportation, the Hunan-based company said on 27 November. The Czech company mainly produces trams, electric locomotives, carriages and electric buses, as well as traction motors or complete drives for traffic systems. If the deal is sealed, this will be the first time the Chinese group has taken over a full-set rail transit equipment manufacturer. People

China vows sound policy for stronger cooperation with Kazakhstan: A senior Chinese official 28 November promised favourable policies to support cooperation with Kazakhstan. Vice Premier Zhang Gaolimade the remarks when co-chairing the China-Kazakhstan Cooperation Committee with Kazakhstan First Deputy Prime Minister Askar Mamin in Beijing. Facilitated by President Xi Jinpingand Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries has been elevated to a new high, said Zhang. People

China slaps new fees on Mongolian exporters amid Dalai Lama row
A major border crossing between China and Mongolia has imposed new fees on commodity shipments between the two countries, amid a diplomatic row sparked by the visit to Ulaanbaatar of the Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama last week. The crossing at Gashuun Sukhait is used to export copper from the giant Oyu Tolgoi mine run by Rio Tinto, as well as coal from the Tavan Tolgoi mine, which China's state-owned Shenhua Group is currently in the running to develop. The crossing in the Chinese region of Inner Mongolia would charge vehicles a transit fee of 10 yuan ($1.45) each time they pass through the border, and would also impose an additional charge of 8 yuan per tonne for any goods they are delivering, according to a notice issued by local authorities and published by the Mongolian Mining Journal on Wednesday. (Reuters)

Georgia’s Weak Opposition Looks on As Ruling Party Flirts with China

While a split within the United National Movement (UNM) party threatens to sink the Georgian pro-Western opposition into political chaos, the ruling Georgian Dream–Democratic Georgia (GDDG), which enjoys a constitutional supermajority in the parliament, is readying to swiftly reorient Georgia’s foreign policy priorities. One source of potential concern are the security policy implications of the rapidly growing economic presence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Georgia. The South Caucasus country is now firmly in the orbit of Beijing’s Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road projects. Labeled “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR), these strategic transit mega projects are estimated to cost $3–4 trillion over the next thirty years. China is primarily seeking to utilize the Kars–Tbilisi–Baku railway, to be completed in 2017, as its own transport corridor connecting Central Asia to Europe by rail and ferry, thus sidelining Russia. (Jamestown Foundation)

Rassegna: Dispacci dalla Silk Road Economic Belt

Cina, Russia e Mongolia hanno siglato un accordo per l'istituzione di un corridoio economico. L'intesa è stata formalizzata a margine del vertice SCO di Tashkent a distanza di poche ore dall'annuncio di Xi Jinping sugli investimenti cinesi nei paesi toccati dal progetto One Belt One Road: 15 miliardi di dollari nel 2015, un 20 per cento in più rispetto al 2014. (SCMP)

La SCO rimanda l'ingresso dell'Iran sebbene caldeggiato da Mosca. Pare non ci siano state obiezioni all'idea "in linea di principio", piuttosto "sfumature tecniche" legate alla tempistica. Non è chiaro chi abbia contestato l'avvio delle pratiche. Tuttavia il ministro degli Esteri cinese ha dichiarato che per il momento Pechino preferisce focalizzarsi sull'inclusione di India e Pakistan. (Reuters). Intanto Siria, Egitto e Israele hanno formalmente avanzato la loro richiesta per un'adesione come "dialogue partner".  (Fort-Russia News) 

Secondo il Global Times, l'ingresso di India e Pakistan nella SCO rischia di tramutarsi in un ostacolo al regolare funzionamento dei meccanismi interni dell'organizzazione, da una parte a causa delle frizioni tra i due paesi, dall'altra a causa delle differenze linguistiche - ad oggi le lingue ufficiali della SCO sono il cinese e il russo. Negli ultimi giorni il GT è tornato sull'argomento in almeno due occasioni. (First Post)

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Il budget stanziato per i progetti del 2016 potrebbe superare la soglia degli 1,2 miliardi di dollari, ha dichiarato sabato il presidente dell'Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Venerdì l'istituto ha stanziato 509 milioni di dollari per avviare il primo pacchetto di investimenti, energetici e infrastrutturali nell'Asia Meridonale/Centrale e del Sudest, quattro in tutto: la ristrutturazione delle slum in Indonesia, la costruzione di strade in Tajikistan e Pakistan, e l'upgrade della rete elettrica in Bangladesh. (Global Times)

L'AIIB punta a coinvolgere investimenti privati sotto forma di Private-Public Partnership (PPP) e programmi di cofinanziamento. "Possiamo anche fornire prestiti a una società privata se è coinvolta nello sviluppo delle infrastrutture di base", ha dichiarato Jin il Global Times durante la conferenza stampa. Secondo il ministro della Finanza lussemburghese, l'AIIB potrebbe trarre ispirazione dall'European Investment Bank che sta offrendo "un sistema di garanzie" in modo da incoraggiare gli investitori privati a partecipare ai progetti, assumendosi gran parte dei rischi. (Global Times) Secondo documenti interni, nonostante i 57 membri fondatori siano quasi tutti asiatici e europei, l'AIIB punta ad espandere la propria membership ad altri paesi dell'Africa e dell'America Latina, oltre i tre già presenti. Si tratta di un passaggio fondamentale considerando che l'istituto può finanziare progetti soltanto nei paesi membri. E ora che la Brexit getta tinte fosche sull'economia del Vecchio Continente il coinvolgimento di altre regione ha valenza strategica. (Financial Times)

Nonostante i numeri celebrati dalla grancassa cinese, la collaborazione economica tra Pechino e Mosca ha il fiato corto: il commercio bilaterale è sceso dai 95,3 miliardi di dollari del 2014 ai 63,6 miliardi del 2015, pari a soltanto l'1,5 per cento del commercio estero cinese. Tuttavia, Pechino ha saputo fortificare la sua posizione nella Federazione stringendo amichevoli rapporti con gli oligarchi del Cremlino. Due nomi spiccano tra tutti: Timchenko e Mikhelson, il duo grazie al quale è stata finalizzata la vendita del 9,9 per cento del sito nell'Artico russo Yamal LNG al Silk Road Fund. Si da il caso che i due siano nella lista nera degli Usa. 

(Foreign Policy)

L'export turkmeno verso la Cina ha raggiunto gli 8,65 miliardi di dollari; segue a larga distanza la Turchia con 567 milioni di importazioni. Ashgabat sta cercando di smarcarsi dall'impiccio sviluppando nuovi canali come il TAPI trans-afgano e la rotto verso l'Europa che passa per il Caspio. Il flusso commerciale tra la Cina e il Tajikistan aveva raggiunto i 300 milioni di dollari nei primi 3 mesi del 2016 e si spera entro il 2020 di portarlo a 3 miliardi annui, contro gli attuali 793 milioni. Gli investimenti diretti cinesi hanno toccato i 273 milioni, pari al 58 per cento del totale degli investimenti esteri nel paese.  (Eurasianet)

Wade Shepard spiega il valore simbolico della nuova mossa di denominare tutti i container scambiati tra Cina ed Europa con il marchio China Railway Express. Inoltre "l'uso unificato del logo CR Express indica una più rigida regolamentazione e gestione della costruzione, dell'uso e della pubblicazione del marchio". L'iniziativa è stata lanciata ufficialmente durante la recente visita di Xi Jinping in Polonia. (Forbes)

Un'ondata islamofoba mette a rischio la strategia tracciata da Xi Jinping per sfruttare le minoranze musulmane cinesi come araldi del progetto OBOR nei paesi limitrofi. Gli hui, un tempo considerati i musulmani "buoni", stanno subendo forti pressioni. Wang Zhengwei - direttore della potente State Ethnic Affairs Commission (SEAC) di etnia hui e avversario del pro-sinizzazione Zhu Weiqun (direttore dell'Ethnic and Religious Affairs Committee della Conferenza politica consultiva del popolo)- è stato fatto fuori anticipatamente in un ultima lotta interna alla leadership (Jamestown Foundation). Poco prima del suo licenziamento Wang si era distinto per un recente tentativo di regolamentare l'industria halal. Una legge sull'halal viene osteggiata da quanti temono un'erosione della capacità di supervisione dello stato sugli affari religiosi. Mentre i precedenti dibattiti costituzionali si sono concentrati su temi quali i diritti di proprietà o certe forme di detenzione, con la questione del cibo halal si è toccato per la prima volta un argomento che concerne le minoranze religiose. Allo stesso tempo, la bocciatura del progetto di legge suggerisce che le voci conservatrici hanno ancora una colta ampiamente vinto. (The Diplomat)

Pechino e Ulan Bator tra alti e bassi

«E' come fare visita a un parente» ma, si sa, con i parenti non sempre va tutto liscio. Questo il commento di Xi Jinping al suo arrivo giovedì nella terra di Gengis Khan, prima visita in Mongolia di un Presidente cinese in 11 anni, quella di più alto profilo da quando l'ex Premier Wen Jiabao vi si recò nel giugno del 2010. Nel frattempo una serie di meeting bilaterali hanno spianata la strada verso Ulan Bator. A maggio il leader mongolo Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj, aveva raggiunto Shanghai per presenziare al summit sulla sicurezza asiatica CICA (Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia), mentre il Ministro degli Esteri cinese Wang Yi ricambiò la visita un mese più tardi dando la netta sensazione che, sì, Pechino è finalmente deciso a recuperare il tempo perduto.

In un articolo scritto di proprio pugno («Galoppando verso un domani migliore per le relazioni sino-mongole») e pubblicato su un giornale locale, Xi illustra in quattro punti la sua visione della partnership strategica rimarcando i vantaggi traibili dalla prossimità geografica e dalla complementarietà economica dei due Paesi. Il Dragone condivide con lo Stato centroasiatico 4.710 chilometri di confine e un turbolento capitolo dell sua storia imperiale.

I rapporti diplomatici tra i due Paesi risalgono a ben 45 anni fa, ma hanno vissuto periodi burrascosi risentendo del deterioramento delle relazioni tra il gigante asiatico e l'Urss intorno al volgere degli anni '60. Al tempo si parlava ancora della sovietica Repubblica Popolare della Mongolia. Acquistato nuovo smalto dopo il 1989, il «buon vicinato basato sulla mutua fiducia» è definitivamente stato promosso a «partnership strategica» nel 2011. E se già nei National Security and Foreign Policy Concepts del 1994 la Cina compariva come priorità assoluta della politica estera di Ulan Bator, di contro negli ultimi anni la diplomazia cinese pare aver trascurato la Mongolia per dare la precedenza a zone ritenute più ghiotte (pensiamo al reticolato di pipeline realizzate negli stan) o semplicemente più instabili (come il Mar cinese con le sue dispute territoriali).

Anche il 2014 è trascorso non senza intoppi: l'incapacità del Governo mongolo di sbloccare la situazione con Rio Tinto per l'espansione delle attività minerarie a Oyu Tolgoi rischia di interrompere lo sviluppo delle forniture di concentrato di rame alla Cina. A ciò si aggiunga l'ennesima posticipazione del rimborso di forniture di carbone per 130 milioni di dollari dovute dalla statale Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi JSC alla China Aluminum International Trading Co, e la notizia della morte improvvisa di Djashzeveg Amarsaikhan, ex Presidente della Petroleum Authority of Mongolia, deceduto in carcere dove si trovava con l'accusa di riciclaggio di denaro in combutta con PetroChina Daqing Tamsag.

Ciononostante, gli esperti sono concordi nel ritenere che «le relazioni relazioni bilaterali stanno vivendo il loro periodo si massimo splendore». Il volume degli scambi commerciali tra i due vicini è aumentato quasi 20 volte tra il 2002 e il 2013, lievitando da 324 milioni di dollari a 6 miliardi. Cifra che i due Paesi si sono impegnati a (quasi) raddoppiare entro il 2020. Secondo la rivista 'Mongolian Economy' la Cina conta per l'80% delle importazioni e il 30% delle esportazioni mongole, ovvero per più della metà del commercio intrattenuto dalla repubblica centroasiatica con l'estero. Circostanza che è già costata a Pechino accuse di 'neocolonialismo economico' alla luce dei massicci investimenti cinesi nelle risorse minerarie mongole, unica vera ricchezza del Paese. Ma la prospettiva di una riduzione delle fonti energetiche inquinanti potrebbe portare ad una diversificazione degli interessi cinesi nelle steppe mongole. Meno carbone, più infrastrutture e reciproca assistenza sullo scacchiere geopolitico.

Che è poi quello che il Dragone si propone di fare su scala regionale con la realizzazione di nuova Via della Seta, una cintura economica attraverso l'Eurasia che prevede nuove ferrovie, condotte e autostrade. Anche la Mongolia potrebbe essere tirata dentro al progetto. Ulan Bator ha in programma di spendere 5,2 miliardi di dollari per espandere le proprie ferrovie. Già a maggio il Governo mongolo aveva presentato al Parlamento una risoluzione per consentire una combinazione di binari a scartamento misto cinese e russo (fino ad oggi le politiche ferroviarie locali hanno imposto il modello russo più largo), che cambierebbe drasticamente il sistema degli scambi bilaterali lungo il confine condiviso rendendo più semplice ed economico l'export di carbone mongolo verso l'ex Impero Celeste. Allo stesso tempo, il perseguimento di un vecchio progetto per la costruzione di una ferrovia più a nord (con scartamento russo) presuppone la volontà di raggiungere nuovi clienti asiatici potenziando i collegamenti tra la Transiberiana e la Transmongolica. Tradotto: un divorzio da Mosca è fuori discussione.

Il timore di un'eccessiva dipendenza dal partner cinese spinge naturalmente Ulan Bator verso le braccia di interlocutori alternativi. Lo dimostrano il silenzio prolungato della Mongolia sulla crisi ucraina (per non turbare la 'Madre Patria') e l'approssimari della visita di Putin in concomitanza con la ricorrenza del 75esimo dalla vittoria russo-mongola sui giapponesi a Khalikhin-Gol del 27 agosto. Se è vero che tutt'oggi la storia ha la capacità di turbare i rapporti attraverso l'Asia Orientale, questo in linea di principio non depone a favore di Pechino. Per i discendenti di Gengis Khan i cinesi si sono già presi una bella fetta di quello che era un tempo il loro Paese -la provincia della Mongolia Interna con Huhehot come capitale- ed è appunto per farsi difendere contro Pechino che la Repubblica Mongola scelse di orbitare attorno al grande sole della'Unione Sovietica. D'altra parte, trattandosi della seconda potenza mondiale, gli strappi di vecchia data possono essere rattoppati senza troppi problemi. Le rassicurazioni sul fatto che «la Cina rispetta la sovranità, l'indipendenza e l'integrità territoriale della Mongolia», attendono una risposta analoga per quanto riguarda il riconoscimento dei diritti della mainland su Taiwan e Tibet -secondo i bene informati, il potere di persuasione cinese ha fatto saltare una visita del Dalai Lama a Ulan Bator in agenda proprio per questo mese. Un kotow oneroso per un Paese in cui il Buddhismo tibetano è la religione più seguita, ma ben ripagato.

Ad aprile il Premier mongolo Norov Altankhuyag ha ufficializzato l'ingresso della Nazione centroasiatica nel board dei membri fondatori dell'Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, l'istituto creato da Pechino per soppiantare gli istituti appannaggio dell'Occidente. Letteralmente: «Data l'eccezionale importanza dello sviluppo delle infrastrutture per il Paese senza sbocco sul mare, il Governo mongolo ha accettato di diventare fondatore della banca». Il prossimo passo potrebbe essere un ingresso della Mongolia nell'APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), come lascerebbe intendere il supporto dimostrato da Xi Jinping a margine del summit CICA.

E' evidente che la nuova geometria del potere mondiale prevede un crescente allontanamento dell'ex satellite sovietico da quello che in passato è stato visto come il partner chiave della 'politica del terzo vicino': gli Stati Uniti. A lungo ha tenuto banco la teoria che il tentativo di divincolarsi dal soffocante abbraccio di Mosca e Pechino avesse reso Ulan Bator una pedina manovrata da Washington, il cavallo di Troia del 'Pivot to Asia' firmato Obama, una nuova promessa delle democrazia asiatica. Detto altrimenti, la Mongolia cercava uno scudo con cui pararsi dall'influenza sino-russa, Washington puntava ad accaparrarsi l'ennesima base militare con cui accerchiare il Dragone per contenerne l'espansione. La buona riuscita dell'intesa sembrava trovare conferma nelle numerose esercitazioni congiunte, così come nella partecipazione fianco a fianco di soldati americani e mongoli in Iraq e Afghanistan. Vero, ma solo per metà.

Come fa notare Jeffrey Reeve su 'The Diplomat', dati gli interessi condivisi con Pechino, la 'politica del terzo vicino' non conviene più a Ulan Bator, che ora sta cercando di stemperare l'influenza cinese con i propri mezzi. Per esempio, limitando gli investimenti diretti stranieri e proibendo alle società statali di assumere il controllo di assets strategici. Anche sul versante militare la partnership con Washington sembra essere stata decisamente sopravvalutata, giacché consultazioni sulla difesa, esercitazioni anti-terrorismo e pattugliamenti alle frontiere avvengono regolarmente anche con le truppe cinesi e russe. Non a caso la Mongolia compare tra i membri osservatori della SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization), la 'Nato asiatica' diretta da Pechino e Mosca. Ma ciò che più conta, è la posizione neutrale affermata da Ulan Bator con la sottoscrizione dei Concetti di sicurezza nazionale e politica estera, documento in cui si vieta a qualsiasi esercito straniero di operare in territorio mongolo, anche se a stelle e strisce. Non solo un tentativo di stare alla larga dai bisticci tra le due potenze mondiali, ma anche di proporsi come possibile mediatore in caso la stabilità della regione venga turbata. La Mongolia è tutt'altro che una pedina e fa un gioco tutto suo.

 (Pubblicato su L'Indro)